All humans benefit from Antarctica and the surrounding Southern Ocean. To some, these benefits may seem priceless. However, in a market-driven world, calculating the economic value of the environment can be a useful tool for rallying support for environmental protection.
That was the aim of our new study. We crunched the numbers on the value of the services Antarctica and the Southern Ocean provide in terms of fisheries, tourism, and the various natural phenomena that support the functioning of our planet.
And what is the result? The economic value is calculated at US$180 billion (A$276 billion) each year. We hope our findings will help prioritize conservation efforts in Antarctica and galvanize international support to protect the region from the ravages of climate change.
Frederick Oliver/Australian Antarctic Division
Visible and invisible benefits
The various benefits that nature provides humans are known as “ecosystem services.”
Some of the services that Antarctica and the Antarctic provide are invisible to most people. For example, the Southern Ocean absorbs carbon dioxide (CO₂) from the atmosphere, and the region's ice reflects heat.These processes help regulate Earth's climate
The Southern Ocean also transports water around the world and helps distribute heat, fresh water, carbon, and nutrients. These are known as “regulated” services.
The value of these services can be considered in terms of the costs that would be incurred if they were not provided. For example, the Antarctic ice sheet contains 30 million cubic kilometers of ice. If that ice were to melt as a result of global warming, it would have a devastating impact on coastal communities around the world.
Other advantages offered by the Antarctic region are more pronounced. For example, humans rely on greenling and krill for food, medicine, and nutritional supplements. Warming and acidification of the Southern Ocean will affect fish stocks both in this region and elsewhere, and some species may become extinct.
The Antarctic region also provides cultural services such as hosting important scientific research. In recent years, the number of tourists to Antarctica has increased rapidly.
So, how valuable are these services to humanity? Our research investigated this question.
Read more: Antarctica is the only uninhabited continent, but it has inspired a wealth of imaginative literature.
Australian Antarctic Division
analyze the numbers
We used a variety of methods to estimate the value of each service. Some things, such as food provision, can be easily calculated by looking at what the market is willing to pay. Attributing value to other functions, such as avoiding harm from CO₂ absorption, is more complex.
Let's start with sightseeing. The number of visitors to Antarctica (mainly by boat) has increased significantly in recent decades, from around 8,000 visitors per year in 1993-1994 to 105,000 in 2022-2023. We estimate the annual value of the Antarctic tourism industry to be approximately US$820 million.
So what about fishing profits? Taking into account the tonnage of greenling and krill fished in the region, its value is estimated at approximately US$370 million annually.
Finally, we estimated the economic value of “regulatory services” such as carbon storage, sea level regulation, and light reflection. This was done by multiplying an estimate of the value of carbon stored in the Southern Ocean by an estimate of the social cost of carbon.
This was a complex calculation, which will be explained in detail in the paper. Overall, the value of regulatory services in the region is estimated at approximately USD 179.3 billion annually.
This brings the total ecosystem services of Antarctica and the Southern Ocean to approximately US$180 billion annually. This is a conservative estimate that excludes some ecosystem services.
For example, the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and nearby ocean circulation distribute Antarctic nutrients around the world and are thought to boost global fisheries value by approximately US$2.8 billion. We have not included it in the calculations above to avoid double counting with other regulated services.
It was also excluded because, due to a lack of data, it was not possible to roughly estimate the value of scientific research in Antarctica. However, research in Antarctica could have prevented significant damage to livelihoods and infrastructure around the world, for example by monitoring changes in ice and sea levels, and this contribution is expected to increase in the future.
The region also provides other important services for which we do not have enough information to estimate, such as undiscovered medicinal properties.
Read more: Antarctic heatwave completely takes scientists by surprise.They tried to crack it – and this is the result
NASA
What role does the Antarctic Treaty play?
As the Southern Ocean becomes warmer and more acidic, its natural systems will undergo major changes. This would reduce many of the benefits that Antarctica provides, at great cost to the world. So how should the international community respond?
Antarctica and the Southern Ocean are governed by the Antarctic Treaty, adopted in 1959. The threats we have outlined were not anticipated at the time, and this treaty does not address them.
Parties to the Convention have the authority to protect some ecosystem services, such as tourism, fisheries, and science. But it cannot effectively protect others, such as regulating services when threats come from outside the Antarctic region.
This treaty has evolved over the years. Now we must go further to protect the region's enormous economic and other benefits to the world.
Read more: The Antarctic Treaty celebrates its 60th anniversary. Is it still fit for purpose in a changed world?
