Are we headed for World War III?Experts give their verdict | World News

The threat of World War III is looming in the national consciousness.

Last week, Defense Secretary Grant Shapps said: warned that the world could be drawn into war The plan, which will also involve China, Russia, North Korea and Iran over the next five years, is moving “from a post-war world to a pre-war world,” he said.

The British Army chief said this is what the British people “should be like”.trained and equipped“Those who are thinking of fighting in a potential war with Russia and are alive today are referred to as the 'pre-war generation.'

General Patrick Saunders' comments have raised concerns about conscription – Britain's former top NATO commander General Richard Sherif has raised concerns about conscription time to consider.

Sir Patrick added that the Ukraine war was a “pressure point” and said “we cannot afford to make the same mistakes” as our predecessors who “suffered terrible wars” such as the First World War in 1914. added.

on the other hand, middle eastBritish and American troops launched airstrikes on Yemen This is a response to attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea by the Iranian-backed Houthis.

Sky News spoke to experts about whether World War III is a possibility and whether we really live in a 'pre-war world'.

Here's what they had to say…

“That fear is not completely unrealistic.”

Alex Rossi, Sky News International Correspondent

“Certainly, the times we live in are extremely dangerous, and the killing of three US soldiers in Jordan raises the possibility of a significant deepening of the crisis in the Middle East.

“How that happens and whether it leads to larger regional conflicts and subsequent escalation of war are critical unknowns.

“It's certainly scary, but it's not completely unrealistic.

“Historians have studied and debated the events leading up to World War I, but through the lens of hindsight we can now see how it began.

“But back then it was not easy to predict how local events would set off a chain reaction that would lead to the industrial and mechanical slaughter of an entire generation.

“And at this time of year there is a warning: There is enormous global uncertainty, and the era of clear American power is over.

“The events of October 7th may very well be the spark for the next major global conflict.

“Four months later, the theater of war has expanded, drawing the United States and its allies deeper into the region.

“Washington's impulse after the Hamas attack was to provide unequivocal support to Israel, but also to do everything it could to contain the fires caused by the atrocities. What we are witnessing now is the limits of that policy.

“Iran's allies and proxies have not been daunted by the large-scale display of U.S. forces in the region, with warships and aircraft carriers acting as magnets for attacks.

“The question now, and the one that will determine whether this war escalates further, is how the United States can restore deterrence after recent attacks on bases in Jordan without making a bad situation even worse. I'm saying that.

“There are really no good options. A direct attack on Iran would be one option, but that could also open a Pandora's box. And we already know how fruitless retaliatory strikes against Yemen's Houthis have been. know.

“Of course, all this happens at a time when Russia is at war with Ukraine (and the West) and China is tightening its stance on Taiwan. This is a sign that we are headed for World War III. It doesn't mean it, but the scary thing is, it doesn't mean it. It didn't.”

“Nuclear risks must be taken seriously.”

Dr David Waring, Lecturer in International Relations, University of Sussex

“In some ways, the current situation is much more dangerous than in 1914 or 1939 because all major powers now have nuclear weapons.

“The danger here is not that one side makes a premeditated decision to cause an apocalypse, but rather that an area of ​​conflict or tension escalates to a certain point and one side acts in a way that is misunderstood by the other. Then a nuclear exchange ensues.'' It begins even though no one is looking for it.

“We should take that risk very seriously, especially ukraine and Taiwan.

“The regional war in the Middle East with its epicenter in Gaza is unlikely to escalate into a world war. It is not currently a flashpoint between the world's major powers.

“But the risks of both genocide in Gaza (as many experts fear) and further escalation that draws Iran in, flares up in the oil heartland of the Persian Gulf and devastates the global economy are sufficient.” “Be realistic about it” is off its axis.

“The United States has repeatedly warned of escalating conflict in the Middle East, and (with the support of the entire United Kingdom) we have repeatedly taken actions that have made that outcome a reality.

“It is now widely understood that de-escalation requires the United States to halt Israel's attack on Gaza. The futile and dangerous military action against the Houthis is a sign of the United States' refusal to accept that reality. It is a reflection of that.”

“The West needs to act to avoid World War III”

Dominic Waghorn, Sky News International Affairs Editor

“We're probably the closest we've come to World War III since the end of the Cold War, but don't worry. There's no need to stockpile bullets and beans in your basement just yet.

“Hot spots are hotter than they've been in a long time, fault lines are getting tighter and the war seems to be escalating. But the warnings being raised by generals and spies are a bit unwarranted. And, let's be honest, they're eager to sound the alarm “for bigger budgets and bigger roles.''

“In fact, if we can convince President Putin that there is no room for continued reckless failure in Ukraine, a conflict with Russia is entirely avoidable.

“Unfortunately, that's a bigger 'what if' than it needs to be at this point.

“Ukraine is suffering from this war, and further Western aid is being withheld in both Europe and the United States.

“What Kiev needs is not a hypothetical discussion about conscription. Kiev needs artillery shells, more artillery shells, and more sophisticated weapons, but so far the West has not been actively working on that. not present.

“Failure to stop President Putin from intervening in Georgia in 2008 led to him interfering again in Crimea in 2014 and Syria in 2015. Failure to stop him in Ukraine will almost certainly result in the Baltic states becoming NATO members. He will try his luck against him, and the Alliance will be too powerless to stop him.

“Instead of talking fanciful talk about citizen armies and national service, Western military and political leaders should tackle the threat head-on, put lead in NATO's pencils, and urge their allies to do the same.” Maybe you want to focus on persuading me.”

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“We are in the pre-war era.”

Simon Diggins, Military Analyst

“In a sense, we are always in a ‘pre-war’ world, because wars can start not only from deliberate planning but also from miscalculations, hubris and misunderstandings.

“But in recent months there has been some great commotion and a sense that the inevitable tensions in our complex world may only be resolved by war.

“While nothing is inevitable, the invasion of Ukraine in particular showed that Russia sees war not just as a means of defense, but as a policy tool, a means of changing the world order in its favor.

“China similarly seeks unification with Taiwan, and Iran wants a ‘place in the sun’ in the region.

“What this means is, essentially, an estimate.” against The use of force for purposes other than defense, which was the basis of the post-World War II world order, has disappeared.

“Who started this is, of course, indisputable. We can blame Russia as a destabilizing factor, but the Russians have criticized the invasion of Iraq in 2003 as an illegitimate use of force,” he said. It points to both “structural invasions.” “The Violence of NATO’s Eastward Expansion to Russia’s Borders.”

“Western countries believe that this expansion is a natural and rational choice for each country.Russians, who have long considered themselves a besieged people, are trying to protect “Mother Russia'' by fighting with friendly nations. , or at least believes in the need for a bulwark of obedient nations.

“This disconnect in worldviews, combined with the willingness to use force, makes the situation in Eastern Europe extremely dangerous.

“The last factor is more direct. Russia doubled its defense spending last year. It now spends 6% of GDP, or one-third of all government spending, on the military. In contrast. , we are spending just over $2% of GDP, or about 4.5% of government spending.

“Much of it is needed to fight the war in Ukraine, but the Russians have always been adaptable, using the crucible of war to reform, reorganize and rearm their military.

“There will probably be a cease-fire or some kind of uneasy stalemate in Ukraine this year, almost certainly by next year.

“We will then face a 'New Russian Army' to be used if Putin wishes, but he has a long list of 'recalibrations' to rectify what he sees as the disaster of the collapse of the Soviet Union.” have.

“We are most definitely in the pre-war era.”