Hannah Ritchie,BBC News, Sydney
Tucked away in deep bushland in Sydney's southern suburbs lies a vast facility that houses technological innovation.
It's here that Australian company SunDrive Solar makes its “special sauce”: a top-secret new formula that the company says has solved a “highly valuable problem.”
The big innovation? Finding a way to replace silver in solar cells with copper, something that was previously thought to be impossible.
“Silver is expensive, rare and environmentally harmful, limiting the extent to which solar energy can be deployed around the world,” explains chief commercial officer Meir Schweitzer.
“Copper is also in high demand, but it is 1,000 times more abundant and 100 times less expensive.”
The startup is one of the beneficiaries of the Australian government's “Future Made in Australia” initiative, a set of policies aimed at making the country a “renewable energy superpower” by investing in the country's green industries.
But some experts question whether the Aus$22.7 billion (US$15 billion, £11.8 billion) package of tax breaks, loans and Kickstarter grants will be enough to achieve these lofty goals.
And climate scientists say Australia needs to stop promoting fossil fuels if it wants to be a major player in the net-zero transition.
Australia's economy has long been driven by natural resources such as coal, gas and iron ore.
But many of its critical minerals, which form the basis of vital low-emission technologies, are exported unrefined, primarily by China, to be refined overseas.
The mine-and-ship trade model has given Australia a reputation as the world's quarry capital, with significant profit losses upstream in the supply chain.
One example is lithium, which is used in batteries to store renewable energy and power electric vehicles.
Australia accounts for just 0.5% of global supply, despite accounting for more than half of the world's total. $57 billion lithium battery market, According to the country's national science agency.
The Australian Made Future policy, formally launched in April, aims to change that by offering tax breaks and loans to companies looking to process critical minerals domestically.
The government argues doing so is a national security priority as countries examine their trade dependence on Beijing and seek to protect themselves from supply chain shocks.
“This is not old-fashioned protectionism or isolationism, this is new competition,” Premier Anthony Albanese said in announcing the plan.
“To meet the magnitude of the opportunity before us, we need to aim high, build bold and build at scale.”
Queensland-based Alpha HPA is one of the companies chosen by the government to deliver on its vision.
Like SunDrive, the company sees itself as a disruptive innovation company, with the ability to make ultra-pure aluminum products used in semiconductors, iPhones and other products with lower carbon emissions than overseas competitors.
Thanks to a A$400 million loan from the federal government, the company is building one of the world's largest alumina smelters near the coastal city of Gladstone, which it says will create hundreds of local jobs.
It's a source of great pride, says Alpha HPA chief operating officer Rob Williamson, given that there is still scepticism about whether things can be made in Australia after decades of outsourcing manufacturing to China.
“Anyone who claims that this country doesn't have the manpower to do the job? [this work] “They just aren't trying,” he added.
SunDrive is following a similar path.
Without government support, Schweitzer said the company might have moved overseas.
Instead, the company plans to transform one of the country's oldest coal-fired power plants into a giant solar panel manufacturing facility.
One in three Australian households now owns solar panels, the highest rate in the world, but only 1% is manufactured locally, most of it in China. 80 and more of world production.
“We have the top three reserves in the world of every mineral needed to make solar panels,” Schweitzer explains.
“Now, for the first time, the end-to-end value chain can potentially be brought to Australia itself, which is really exciting.”
The Made in Australia Pledge has the backing of the country's largest renewable energy industry trade association, which says investment “Changing the game.”
“This is a huge opportunity for us to export climate solutions, not climate problems, to the world,” said John Grimes, executive director of the Smart Energy Council.
But some climate experts have warned that this is being “seriously undermined” by the government's recent decisions. Promoting gas beyond 2050 This is despite global calls to rapidly phase out fossil fuels.
“We're sending very conflicting messages to investors,” said Polly Hemming, director of the Australia Institute's climate and energy program.
“The current administration continues to approve new gas and coal projects and is flying to Japan, India, South Korea and Vietnam to secure long-term markets for gas and coal.”
“If we really wanted to be a green energy powerhouse, we wouldn't be relentlessly pursuing fossil fuel customers,” she says.
One of the nation's leading climate scientists agrees.
“There's a very deep contradiction underlying the two policies,” said Prof Bill Hare, chief executive of Climate Analytics and author of many of the UN's climate change reports.
“A future made in Australia [plan] It is simply subordinated to the government's gas strategy.”
To understand how it works, Hemming says you need to “follow the money.”
Her think tank's analysis found that last year alone state and federal governments spent A$14.5 billion subsidising fossil fuel use across Australia, and budget estimates show that figure is expected to rise further.
In contrast, A$13.7 billion was set aside for the processing of critical minerals and developing new industries in Australia. Green Hydrogen The industry is “not real money.”
This is in the form of a 10-year tax cut. Can only be exchanged for cash The model, which would begin production from 2027, is one that policymakers say will ensure taxpayer money isn't wasted.
But none of the green hydrogen projects, many of which are led by the country's largest mining and energy companies, have been built yet, and a change in government could see incentives removed before the projects get off the ground.
“It's like having a healthy eating and junk food policy in my house at the same time and telling my kids, 'If you keep eating junk food, I'll give you $10 a week,'” Hemming says.
“Or, 'Switch to broccoli in 2027 and we'll give you $2.' What do you think they'll prioritize?”
Some energy experts question the business case for green hydrogen, given that the industry is still in its early stages and there are many unknowns.
Others worry that this could divert investment from proven renewable energy sources and slow the fight against climate change.
But Grimes said green hydrogen would play a key role in “taking the emissions out of” Australia's carbon-intensive mining sector as companies look for cheap, green fuel sources to keep operating.
Moreover, looking at the bigger picture, he argues that the government's new green investments should be seen as a “groundbreaking first step” rather than an end goal.
“The government recognises that unless we pivot quickly away from coal, gas and iron ore exports, Australia risks becoming a future Kodak economy – big news one day and totally irrelevant the next.”
Australia is not the only country trying to position itself as a driving force behind the new green economy.
Dozens of countries have put forward ambitious proposals, including the European Union's Green Deal and America's massive Anti-Inflation Act.
Globally, policymakers have already invested more than A$2 trillion into clean energy initiatives since 2020, according to the International Energy Agency.
But Australia has some compelling natural advantages, including enviable wind and solar generating capacity, reserves of critical minerals and rare earth elements, and a strong, reusable mining infrastructure network.
All the experts the BBC spoke to agreed that, if used correctly, it has a good chance of securing a place among allied nations as a key green trading partner.
But getting there will require much bigger investments, especially in research and development, they say. The lowest price in 30 years.
And they are warning that the government cannot afford to drag its feet – a point that Mr Albanese himself has addressed head on.
“We must act immediately. We have infinite possibilities, but we do not have infinite time.
“If we miss this moment, it will be gone. If we miss this opportunity, there will never be another one. If we do not act to shape the future, the future will shape us.”