Solar power plant in Liuzhou, China. (Costfoto/NurPhoto)
- China's carbon dioxide emissions fell in March for the first time since the economy reopened after the pandemic, the analysis found.
- March's decline was the result of expansion of renewable energy capacity, which covered almost all of the increase in electricity demand.
- Emissions could peak in 2023 if renewable energy capacity continues to grow at record levels.
- For more climate change news and analysis, News24 The Future of Climate.
China's carbon dioxide emissions fell in March for the first time since anti-pandemic restrictions were lifted and the economy reopened, suggesting the country's emissions may have peaked, according to new analysis.
March's decline was the result of the expansion of renewable energy capacity, which covered almost all of the increase in electricity demand, and a significant slowdown in construction activity.
China's emissions could peak as soon as 2023 if renewable energy capacity continues to grow at record levels, according to analysis by Lauri Mirlivirta of the Energy and Clean Air Research Center.
Writing in Carbon Brief, Mirlivirta said that based on an analysis of official data, China's carbon dioxide emissions fell 3% year-on-year in March 2024.
Emissions for the quarter were still high, but that was because January and February 2024 were compared with a still-subdued period in December 2022 after anti-COVID-19 restrictions were lifted.
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The analysis released on Tuesday said March was “the first month to show a clear indication of emissions trends since the recovery.”
While the March figure is a single data point, it tracks last year's forecast and suggests major trends.
Power sector emissions stabilised thanks to increases in solar and wind power, but steel production fell 8% year-on-year and cement production fell sharply by 22%.
This reflects a slowdown in the real estate sector that is likely to continue.
Meanwhile, the growing adoption of electric vehicles continues to hit oil demand, with sales data showing that electric vehicles now account for just over 10% of all vehicles on the road, up from 7% last year.
Importantly, while electricity demand also increased at the household level due to the purchase of air conditioners, almost 90% of the additional demand in March was met by renewable energy, Mirrivirta wrote.
Much of this renewable energy generation takes the form of small-scale solar power, which is becoming increasingly important in China's renewable energy surge.
Solar and wind installations grew by 40% in the first quarter of this year, but access to the grid for new capacity remains constrained.
As a result, wind and solar still account for just 15% of China's electricity generation, but authorities are moving to further integrate renewables into the grid, Myrivirta writes.
However, the trajectory of China's emissions is unclear, and there are differing views on whether the rate of renewable energy adoption will increase or slow.
The analysis also warned that the government's GDP growth and carbon intensity (emissions per unit of GDP) targets suggest Beijing remains on a trajectory of rising emissions.
China also continues to invest in coal, and while growth in coal-fired power capacity slowed slightly in the first quarter of this year, a significant number of plants remain in the planning stages.