Written by Peter Apps
Taipei, January 25 (Reuters) – As the NATO Defense Secretary's meeting drew to a close last week, the Chairman of the NATO Military Committee, Admiral, said: robert bauer He outlined steps that households in the Alliance already believe should be taken in the event of war.
“We need water, battery-powered radios and battery-powered flashlights to ensure survival for the first 36 hours,” he said, adding that member states may need them in a major conflict. This is to introduce a conscription system to keep the army fighting.
He said shifting “tectonic plates” are creating the most dangerous world in decades, and that the risks can only be tackled by the private sector, industry and governments working together, and that greater He warned that it would bring resilience.
“Public and private stakeholders need to change their mindset from a time when everything was planable, predictable, controllable, and focused on efficiency to a time when anything could happen at any time,” Bauer said. Stated. “We live in an age where we have to anticipate the unexpected.”
In parallel with what appears to be an ongoing U.S.-British military Campaign in Yementhe first weeks of 2024 have brought greater focus to the growing risk of war in both Europe and the Pacific, and the realization that US military engagement on both sides of the world is now in question. .
Last week, that awareness seemed to become even stronger.
On Wednesday, British Army Chief of Staff General Patrick Saunders became the latest European commander to warn that he may need to consider reintroducing conscription in the event of a major war in Europe. But this suggestion is the last British military leader has had to make in recent decades.
Supreme Commander of the Swedish Armed Forces Michael Biden Civil Defense Minister Karl-Oskar Bolin warned that “war is a possibility for Sweden,” but called on people to “mentally prepare” for conflict. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said experts in Berlin believe the biggest threat could come within five to seven years.
Norway's defense minister has hinted at an even tighter schedule. General Eirik Kristofferson says the Kremlin's cooperation with Iran and North Korea could further accelerate Kremlin rearmament, giving NATO countries only “two, maybe three years” to prepare. It was suggested that there is a sex.
This fits in with a tighter timeline suggested by some U.S. officials for a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan, which some analysts believe could coincide with a Russian attack on Europe or a North Korean attack on South Korea. I think there is a possibility that it will progress.
Some U.S. officials have suggested that Taiwan could be attacked as early as 2025, while others have suggested 2027 as a more likely date.
Those within Taiwan in particular believe that the 2030s will be the most dangerous period, especially with reports of purges within the Chinese military as President Xi Jinping seeks to crack down on corruption and military ineffectiveness. Yes, suggesting a slightly longer period.
But the prospect of Trump returning to office calls many of those predictions into question. His unpredictability makes his actions and outcomes extremely difficult to model.
President Trump deepens uncertainty
Further details of the comments emerged throughout January. donald trump In it, he expressed the belief that defending Europe was not in the best interest of the United States.
French European Commissioner Thierry Breton He said he was present in Brussels last week at Trump's 2020 meeting with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, where Trump described NATO as “dead” and vowed to leave it. .
“You must understand that if Europe comes under attack, we will never be able to help you and support you.” Breton quoted President Trump.
“Taiwan has certainly taken all of our semiconductor business,” Trump said. “We used to make all our chips in-house, but now they are made in Taiwan.”
These comments were quickly condemned by U.S. political and national security officials. Some voices within Taiwan are warning that if the United States appears to abandon the island to its fate, Taiwan's resilience to Chinese pressure, let alone invasion, could be seriously undermined.
They argue that Trump's notorious reputation abroad and long-standing reluctance to protect some U.S. allies means the threat of conflict in Europe and the Pacific will increase during his administration. There are some people. Some have suggested that adversaries, including Russia and China, may refrain rather than face the sheer unpredictability of the president's response.
Few doubt that the threat is growing. But there is growing disagreement about what choices we have to make.
Elbridge Colby, a former senior Pentagon official in the Trump administration who wrote much of the 2018 National Defense Strategy, said the U.S. will prioritize its biggest threat: a rising China that seeks to pose a strategic threat to the United States. has repeatedly argued that the Middle East and Europe need to be downsized. Defeated in the battle against Taiwan.
“We don't have enough power to take over the world, so we have to make a choice,” Colby wrote on social media platform X on Tuesday.
dangerous choice
The more Russia, China, or other potentially predatory countries believe that allies of the United States, such as Europe, Taiwan, or the Philippines, may not be supported by the United States government in the event of an attack. , the probability that such an attack will occur increases.
Already, some in Washington are warning that the U.S. military's continued operations in Yemen risk depleting missile stockpiles vital to the Asian war. With support from Ukraine, shell stocks in Western states have been significantly reduced, and several countries are moving to significantly increase production capacity, which could take years.
In Asia, tensions remain high over the dispute between the Philippines and China. Second Thomas Scholl Meanwhile, North Korea has been revamping its rhetoric toward South Korea this month. Some worry that an outbreak of conflict over either could perhaps be a harbinger of Chinese moves against Taiwan. Some fear that an attack on Taiwan and a Russian attack on Europe will occur at the same time.
Ukraine is already nervous that it will be abandoned by Congress or by the Trump administration, which is up for re-election in early 2025. Biden administration officials are now furiously lobbying Congressional leaders for additional funding, which has already depleted the money appropriated.
Last week, a detachment of European and Canadian NATO parliamentarians swooped into Washington, urging both Republicans and Democrats to maintain support for Kiev and other European countries. But such demands are likely to only strengthen the US reaction that Europe must do more to protect itself.
starts this month solid defender, NATO's largest military exercise since 1988, with approximately 90,000 participants, mostly from Europe. However, it is doubtful whether NATO's current small, largely professional force will be sufficient for a prolonged continental war.
This partly reflects another concern. There is a growing recruitment crisis in several Western militaries, with Australia and Germany already proposing to recruit foreign personnel.
John Conrad, a former U.S. naval officer and journalist, told X magazine this week, “Perhaps the current low number of military recruits among military families is due to the fact that parents of veterans are worried that the next war will be bloody.” I guess it's because I think it will.''
When his own son asked about joining the military, he said he tried to be cooperative.
“But in my heart, I also think that having two John Conrads buried in Arlington National Cemetery is enough.”
*Peter Ups is a Reuters columnist who writes about defense and security issues. He joined Reuters in his 2003 year reporting on global defense issues from Southern Africa and Sri Lanka. He is also the founder of the 21st Century Research Project think tank, and has been a Labor Party activist and British Army Reservist since 2016. His first book, Deterring Armageddon: A Biography of NATO, will be released next month.
(Edited by Nick McPhee)
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
