conclusion
- South Africa is on a difficult economic and political trajectory, putting national stability at risk.
- This trajectory could endanger South Africa's democracy and lead to some form of dictatorship.
- The 2024 South African general election could be an inflection point that pushes South Africa further towards a hybrid democracy-authoritarian regime.
flawed democracy
Since the end of apartheid, the South African government has functioned as a one-party democracy. The African National Congress (ANC) brought political stability to the emerging nation, which some feared would be torn apart by racial, ethnic, and tribal divisions. At the same time, it has created a structure in which political elites can acquire significant power, wealth, and influence through corruption, patronage, and clientelism. As a result, South Africans live in a democracy that is increasingly flawed by state capture, resulting in one of the most unequal countries in the world.
There are now growing concerns that South Africa is on the brink of state collapse and a debt crisis. This has led many to openly question the value of a democratic future without fundamental rights and fundamental freedoms. This is especially true for young people, who have relatively low numbers of registered voters. Almost 30 years after Nelson Mandela's election, the gulf between those who value democracy and those who do not seem to be widening across the country.
economic stagnation
The South African economy is in a precarious situation. When Cyril Ramaphosa was elected president, there were hopes that his administration would be able to quickly deliver on his pledges to boost the national economy and restore ethical business practices. Unfortunately, the COVID-19 pandemic brought an external shock, causing gross domestic product (GDP) to contract by 6.3% in 2020. Although GDP grew by 4.9% in 2021, economic forecasts are not encouraging. The country's GDP is projected to grow by only 1.7% in 2022, 1.1% in 2023, and 1.6% in 2024. Furthermore, there is a significant risk that the ongoing energy crisis will lead to an economic recession in the not-too-distant future. .
To foster growth, the International Monetary Fund recommended that the Ramaphosa government improve energy security, encourage private investment, promote good governance, and create jobs. Unfortunately, this is easier said than done. Given the public debt burden, labor market rigidities, infrastructure constraints and political realities, the South African government has little room for action. There are growing concerns that this could lead to the collapse of basic services and public infrastructure, with a cost of living and jobs at risk. S&P's recent decision to cut its economic outlook for the country only adds fuel to the fire.
faction between parties
In a one-party system like South Africa, the interests of the dominant party tend to be confused with those of the state. However, this does not mean that these parties cannot tolerate internal factions with opposing political views. Like the Mandela family, there has long been a camp within a camp within the ANC.
Ahead of the next election, there is a risk that more ANC politicians will reject the idea that there is good alignment between their own interests and those of the party. More than half of South African taxpayers are seriously considering not voting for the ANC in the next election, according to a recent poll. Separate sources say Ramaphosa's approval ratings have fallen by 8% in less than a year. As a matter of fact, there is no quick fix. Many predict that the ANC will lose significant votes if Ramaphosa is not the leader. The ANC therefore faces an increasingly uncertain future that could further undermine party discipline.
political conundrum
Mr Ramaphosa is in the midst of a political conundrum. The former ANC chief negotiator, who brought about the peaceful transition to democracy, committed his government to combating all forms of corruption and state capture when he ran for president. President Ramaphosa has since launched an investigation into high-level corruption and seizure of state power. At the same time, he was embroiled in multiple corruption scandals that nearly led to his own impeachment. To make matters worse, he suspended the public protector who had the nerve to investigate the Farah Farah Farm case. These strange developments appear to be undermining his reform vision.
Perhaps more worrying are his efforts to securitize the ongoing energy crisis. His declaration that the energy crisis was an existential threat and required extraordinary measures drew immediate condemnation from pro-democracy activists. Some even argued that these emergency measures could unintentionally create the conditions necessary for authoritarian rule. Earlier this month, the Ramaphosa government responded by declaring an end to the state of disaster, which it defended as necessary.
alternative futures
Over the past two decades, the South African government has slowly but steadily moved from a full democracy to a hybrid regime. This coincides with sub-structural changes in basic civil liberties, the functioning of government, judicial freedom, political participation, and repression of opposition. But it is unreasonable to think that South Africa will remain a flawed democracy for the next 20 years. Next year's elections could even bring about major changes in China's position along the democracy-authoritarian spectrum. A year on, most South African voters appear to be extremely dissatisfied with the policy. current situation. The key question is whether they are willing to vote to remove the ANC and, if they do, whether the ANC is willing to support free and fair elections that risk a change of government.
Let me be clear: There is still time between now and the election. If Mr. Ramaphosa can somehow curb corruption and spur economic growth, his political fortunes will almost certainly improve. Not only would it help restore party cohesion and put a damper on discussions about regime change, it could also open up the political space needed to make a strong case for democratic reform within the party. Of course, this raises his two questions: Is Ramaphosa still willing and able to push through the reforms necessary to achieve full democracy, and if so, under what conditions?
The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone and of the Foreign Policy Research Institute, a nonpartisan organization that seeks to publish well-argued, policy-oriented articles about U.S. foreign policy and national security. It does not necessarily reflect the position. Priority.
Image: South African Government