2024 Election Analysis: A Closer Look at the Results
Ahead of the 2024 elections, opinion polls were predicting that the ANC would lose its majority. At the time, many people, including political parties, warned that the polls should be taken with a pinch of salt because no one believed the ANC's support would fall below 50% in the elections.
It was predicted that this would first occur in 2029. To the public's surprise, the polls turned out to be correct.
The situation has left the ANC, which won just over 40% of the vote, in a position where it must rush to hammer out a coalition deal to form the next government before its 14-day term ends.
At this time, the first session of the National Assembly will be held, during which the country's next president and speaker of the National Assembly will be elected.
The polls may have been accurate, but one important aspect they didn't model was voter turnout.
This refers to the number of voters who turned up to polling stations on election day and cast their vote, and it turned out to be a key reason why South Africa achieved the results it did.
Voter turnout has been steadily declining for years, with just over 66% of eligible voters casting ballots in 2019. Turnout for the 2021 local elections was a shocking 45.86%.
In 2024, 27 million people were registered to vote, but only 58.57% actually cast a ballot. The low voter turnout reflects a lack of trust in the political process and is a serious indictment of all political parties.
In this Friday Briefing, we'll decode the 2024 election to help you understand what happened.
News24 election analyst Dowie Scholz dissects the results in detail, looking at how voter turnout affected the outcome – and also looks at another key aspect: demographics.
A paper has also been submitted by Matlala Setlarogile from Wits University's School of Governance, examining what the findings say about the country.
In the third post, News24 columnist and political analyst Mpumelelo Mkhabela takes a closer look at whether the 2024 outcome reflects a strengthening of democracy or whether there are reasons for concern.
We hope you enjoy the submissions while we wait for news on the makeup of the next administration.
The best,
Vanessa Banton
Opinion Editor