A-loot-a continua: Can we expect a similar response from the ANC in 2024 and beyond?
It is no secret that public discontent and disillusionment with the way the ANC has been governing in recent years has grown.
If voters are looking for reasons not to vote for a political party in the upcoming national elections, there are endless options: endemic corruption due to state takeover, hollowing out of state institutions, high crime rates, a sluggish economy, and rising unemployment (8.2 million people are currently unemployed).
It wouldn't be hard for voters to find plenty of other reasons.
Between 1994 and 2004, when the ANC first came to power, the party performed well, increasing its majorities in three national elections. However, since the party's peak of 69.69% of the vote in 2004, its support has been in steady decline; in 2019 it won just 57.50%.
This data, along with poor performance in local elections, has led many analysts to predict that the ANC will win a slim majority in 2024, or finish just below 50%, forcing it to form a coalition government for the first time in the country's democratic history.
The ANC would probably like to avoid this as the country marks 30 years of democracy this year.
As polling stations prepare to open in five days, many voters are expressing concern that for the first time since democracy, they don't know who they're actually going to vote for.
The ANC has pulled out all the stops to woo voters, with President Cyril Ramaphosa recently signing the controversial National Health Insurance (NHI) Bill into law, but many analysts see this as another election ploy and question its viability.
The party issued a statement on Wednesday saying it intends to finalise its Basic Income Grant (BIG) policy “within two years of the new ANC government taking office”.
The ANC has revealed little about how it intends to fund these efforts, other than to say taxes are expected to increase.
Considering the various crises facing the country, a weak, divided, fragmented and uncoordinated Opposition is the party's only salvation.
The ANC had five years to assess whether voters deserved to govern as they saw fit, and the fact that they chose to keep their candidates on the national list despite the taint on their names speaks volumes.
This week's Friday Briefing will ask whether we can expect more similar behaviour from the ANC if it remains in the Union Buildings after the 2024 elections.
With contributions from News24's Deputy Politics and Opinion Editor Natasha Marian, Professor Mtshebisi Ndletyana from the University of Johannesburg and Professor David Everat from Wits University.
If you haven't decided who to vote for yet, the submissions may help you make up your mind.
The best,
Vanessa Banton
Opinion editor.
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