Heading into this weekend's South Carolina Republican primary, polls show Nikki Haley leading Donald Trump by a wide margin, and many political analysts believe the vote will be in 2024. It is analyzed that this is Haley's last stand in her bizarre bid to become a presidential candidate.
But regardless of the outcome, scholars say Haley's campaign is historic. By effectively taking on Trump, who enjoys overwhelming popularity in a male-dominated field, she brought women one step closer to political equality in electoral politics.
Polls show Trump leading Haley by as many as 36 points heading into Saturday's South Carolina primary, despite the fact that Haley is a native and former Palmetto governor. And while a victory in the South Carolina primary would pave the way for Trump to win the party's nomination outright when 15 states simultaneously hold primaries next month, Haley's campaign has at least a theory. The above chart depicts his path to staying in the race until Super Tuesday. This could give the former UN ambassador an advantage in the 2028 presidential vote.
Haley vowed to stay in the race despite the odds. Speaking at her alma mater, Clemson University, on Tuesday, she said, “Some of you, maybe some of you in the media, are here today to see if I'm dropping out of the race.'' “I did it,” he said. “Well, not really. Far from it.”
Haley's emergence as the last woman in the crowded race puts her in stark contrast to candidates who have billed themselves as “anti-Trump” candidates such as former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson. It's a contrast. Conversely, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis was unable to differentiate himself from the front-runner and was close to Trump in style and content until he resigned in January.
Haley, on the other hand, has struck a middle ground, portraying herself as a wannabe White House “accountant” and thus a calm alternative to Trump's four years of “turmoil.”
Ms. Haley was initially cautious in her criticism, but as the Republican Party narrowed, she became more critical, attacking Mr. Trump's efforts to get supporters into the Republican National Convention and focusing on Mr. Trump's legal troubles. It emphasizes the pile-up and more directly targets Trump's “anxiety” and Trump's “anxiety.” A tantrum.
But Haley's policy proposals remain virtually unchanged from her former boss, and just this month, Haley told reporters in South Carolina that her campaign was an “anti-Trump movement,” according to the Washington Post. He reportedly said that he was not.
Part of Haley's strategy is to walk a tightrope in dealing with her gender and Indian ancestry within the slow-moving modern Republican Party, said Kelly Dittmar, director of research at the Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers University. he told Al. Jazeera.
For example, Dittmar said that while Haley has in many ways leaned into her role as a rare woman in the Republican presidential race, she has not necessarily portrayed her gender as a “strength,” and has not always portrayed her gender as a “strength.” “The idea that you can somehow hear something,” he emphasized.Anti-meritocratic when it comes to gender and racial identity…and [Republicans] Don't engage in identity politics. ”
“If you go back to Hillary Clinton in 2016, she said, 'I'm not asking you to vote for me because I'm a woman. I'm not asking you to vote for me because I have merit. I’m asking for it.’ But one of those advantages is that I’m a woman,” Dittmar said.
In contrast, Haley repeatedly used her high-heeled shoes as “ammunition”, using gendered imagery to promote “masculine entitlement” and an image of male toughness that still resonates within the party. I called it. In her ad launching her own campaign, she declared, “When you wear heels, you feel more pain when you recoil.”
Additionally, when it comes to racial issues, Haley leans to the right, in line with Trump's own views, and controversially did not cite slavery as a reason for the Civil War. And most recently, in an interview in late January, she repeated her usual Republican rhetoric. “I don't think America is racist,” she said. “I think there is racism in America.”
historical benchmark
Dittmar said Trump's attack on Haley suggests there is still a tolerance, if not an appetite, for racism and sexism among his supporters. . In January, President Trump called Haley “crazy” and “unfit for president.”
President Trump has amplified the conspiracy that Ms. Haley, who is of Indian descent, was not born in the United States, reminiscent of a tactic known as “natalism” championed by Barack Obama during his 2008 presidential campaign, and the country's first Falsely claimed that Haley was the African-American president. Because he was born in Kenya, he was not eligible to run for president.
The former president also referred to Haley as “Nimbla,” an obvious disparagement of her first name, Nimarata (the name she uses, Nikki, is her middle name).
He has bragged about sexually assaulting women, mocked his 2016 Democratic opponent Hillary Clinton as a “nasty woman” who is unpresidential, and in 2015, a female debate moderator said, “Whatever… She’s bleeding.”
While such attacks have increasingly been seen as part of the Trump campaign, Dittmar said research shows high levels of “hostile sexism” and “racial resentment” among his supporters. He pointed out that this is regularly shown.
“It's not surprising that Mr. Trump would use sexist or racist language or tactics, because it was actually helpful to him in mobilizing many voters,” Dittmar said. told Al Jazeera. “[Nikki Haley] It will bring that out, but it will probably give him an advantage, at least among his base. ”
Ms. Haley has fought back by launching the National Women's Coalition for Nikki, a 50-state initiative seen by many as a last-ditch effort to energize her district.
And while it may ultimately be a matter of too little, too late, Haley's staying power in the race is a historic marker for a party that has traditionally been dominated by white men. And voters, donors and the media seem to value her far more highly than Sarah Palin, the former Alaska governor and self-proclaimed “hockey mom” often mocked by stand-up comedians and late-night talk show hosts. .
“It's remarkable that the Republican Party recognizes and applauds Haley for pushing the envelope in getting women candidates at least taken more seriously as potential candidates,” Dittmar said.
“In the modern context, she's probably come further than any other Republican woman. I think that's something worth pointing out, no matter what happens.”
election vulnerability
Political watchers say a landslide loss in South Carolina is certain, but Haley's campaign is more concerned with the current temperature of the Republican Party and the existential crisis exemplified by President Trump's enduring support. It is said that he brought it.
Perhaps the most salient aspect of Haley's candidacy is that she, or other Republican candidates who have now left the party, have no choice but to attack Trump, a maverick politician who has continued to polarize the party. That's probably how difficult it was to accept.
In 2020, the anti-Trump movement largely rallied under the banner of “Never Trump.” Aaron Cole, an election expert at the University of Michigan, said that although such efforts were less vocal this election cycle, “a small but significant number of disaffected Republican voters still support Trump.” We are looking for a replacement candidate.”
“This shows that if Mr. Trump is the nominee, which remains a strong possibility, he has some vulnerabilities in the general election,” he said.
She cited several prominent donors who continue to provide the funds Haley needs to remain in the race, noting that many of them are from the traditional conservative conservative wing of the Republican Party. . Haley's campaign said she raised $16.5 million in January, nearly a third of the $42 million in campaign funds raised by Trump last month. He said it was his biggest monthly salary since he joined the election campaign.
Before the South Carolina primary, Haley also attended a Texas fundraiser co-sponsored by real estate mogul Harlan Crowe and oil tycoon Ray Lee Hunt, according to Fortune magazine.
permanent hold
Some see Haley's persistence as an effort to position herself as Trump's natural successor should she fail to become her party's nominee.
Trump is the first candidate to face one criminal indictment, let alone four, during a campaign, creating an unprecedented situation that could see the former president locked up in prison in November. Questions have arisen regarding the possibility of
“We have empirical evidence that MAGA: [Trump’s “Make America Great Again” movement] Its influence within the party is not growing, its size is shrinking,” political strategist Lina Shah told Al Jazeera.
She noted that candidates supported by President Trump underperformed in the 2022 midterm elections, resulting in the predicted red wave turning into a ripple.
Shah believes Haley's defeats in Iowa and New Hampshire and recent polling do not reflect how alienated Trump is from some segments of the Republican Party, especially suburban women. He said there was.
“The 2024 general election will be decided by independence-minded voters in battleground states,” Shah told Al Al Jazeera. “I believe that President Trump cannot bring this person into this election because he defeated them badly in 2020.”
Still, the former president has shown an ability to mobilize a passionate base, something his Democratic opponent, President Joe Biden, has failed to do so far this election season. Shah said the irony is that while Haley's campaign raised the bar for women running for high political office, it paradoxically showed Trump to be a political giant. Ta.
Shah said that even when Trump is “barely campaigning when he's exposed to all these legal challenges,” “the loyalty of his supporters to him is much stronger than they've seen in other candidates.” It's much deeper than I've ever been.”
In summary, Haley's candidacy shows that for Trump, the Republican Party remains a “cult of personality.”
