Glen Cove, New York – A mansion rises from the coastline. A sailing ship cuts through the waves. And on a grassy knoll overlooking the landscape sits the home of former President Theodore Roosevelt.
New York's 3rd Congressional District, located on the north shore of Long Island, is the state's wealthiest region and has recently emerged as a key battleground for control of the U.S. House of Representatives.
All eyes will be on the district on February 13, when a special election will be held to fill the House seat vacated by the ouster of former Rep. George Santos.
But the stakes go beyond a single district. Experts say the campaign could be seen as a prelude to the Nov. 5 general election, which will see the presidential race and all seats in the House of Representatives contested.
“February 13th is actually like November 5th, not just here but in many suburbs across the country,” said Lawrence Levy, vice president and executive dean of the National Center for Suburban Studies at Hofstra University. talk.
“Both parties see this as a precursor to testing strategies, tactics and messaging to see how they deal with the various minefields they face.”
Levy labeled the political minefield for Democrats as the “three I's”: immigration, inflation and Israel. One of the main hurdles for Republicans is abortion, he said.
Republicans “cannot afford to lose seats”
Control of the House of Representatives is critical to addressing these issues. Republicans currently hold the most seats in the House, but their lead is very thin and declining.
The party has 219 seats, down from 222 at the beginning of last year. At least two Republicans have resigned during this time, and another resigned to fight cancer.
The House, where Democrats hold 212 seats, is vulnerable to changes in party leadership. If districts flip, or change parties, during the next election, the balance of power could tip toward Democrats.
Levy said races like New York's 3rd District could be crucial. He noted that to pass the House's current agenda, Republicans need to muster every vote they can muster to overcome Democratic opposition. Even small party dissent can block legislation.
“We still can't afford to lose our seats, especially when we have Republicans defending their lives in competitive suburban districts,” Levy said.
Levy said these Republicans “may be more inclined to strike deals with Democrats to maintain their image as moderates, even at the expense of party priorities, to improve their personal electoral prospects.” ” he explained.
History-making campaign goes viral
New York is therefore one of several states where both Republicans and Democrats expect to see an increase in the number of House members this year.
New York State leans Democratic overall, but more localized House races could be volatile, with experts predicting at least seven of the state's 26 House districts will have tough races this November. He said an election could be held.
Ward 3 is one of them. In 2022, the district made national headlines with the surprise election of Santos, a political newcomer and the first openly Republican non-incumbent member of Congress.
He was part of a miniature red wave that wrested two seats from Democratic control on Long Island. He credited his victory to the power of grassroots movements.
“One of the things I'm proud of is being able to prove that there is diversity of thought in this country. Just because you're gay doesn't mean you have to be a Democrat,” Santos said. He spoke to public radio station WNYC about his victory.
However, even before he took office, Santos became embroiled in controversy after allegations surfaced that he had lied about his educational background, work history, and even his religion.
“I said I looked Jewish,” he said in an interview with the New York Post, acknowledging his Catholic faith.
Santos was ultimately expelled from the House in December after an investigative subcommittee announced it had found “substantial evidence” that he had committed a crime.
Veteran vs outsider
Republican leaders are seeking another political outsider to replace Santos in Mazi Melesa Pilip, an Ethiopian-American and former Israeli paratrooper.
In December, the publication Politico reported that Pilip, who has campaigned tough on immigration and crime, had been a registered Democrat since 2012, calling the race “doomed for drama.”
Democrats, on the other hand, nominated Tom Suozzi, an Italian-American political veteran who held the House seat before Santos. He is considered a familiar face in Long Island politics.
Levy said the Democratic Party's choice is safe and appeals to centrists.
“Democrats have hired a local name brand who is actually known in the state, someone who once served as president. So he has a record that can be positive or negative,” he said. Told.
Long Island voter Debbie Rocco, 70, is one of those familiar with the Suozzi surname. A lifelong resident of the small waterfront town of Glen Cove, she said her Democratic Party has the charm of her hometown. He has lived in a quiet suburban area for years.
“Everyone in Glen Cove knows Tom,” Rocco said. “I worked with him because I had been involved with charities in Glen Cove and he was mayor here.”
But Rocco added that just because he knows Suozzi doesn't mean he'll vote enthusiastically for him. “At this point, he's the lesser of two evils,” she said.
Meanwhile, Mr. Levy suggested that Mr. Pilip's nomination may be aimed at drawing voters away from the Democratic Party.
“[Pilip] He is an Orthodox Jew who served in the Israeli military,” Levy said. “She may appeal to some Jews who normally vote Democratic.”
Gaza war has become a major issue
Standing outside their snow-covered home, Rocco and his longtime friend and roommate Susan Corbo, 68, identified themselves as independent voters. They said they would vote on an issue-by-issue basis rather than along party lines.
Corbo said he is concerned about continued access “besides abortion,” especially “Social Security and Medicare and Medicaid,” the latter two of which are government health insurance programs.
“They're trying to take that away from us,” Corbo explained.
She and Rocco also cited Israel's war in Gaza as another key issue that will prompt them to vote in February's special election.
Both Pilip and Suozzi have been vocal supporters of Israel during its months-long military operation in the Palestinian territories. More than 27,900 Palestinians have been killed since the war began on October 7, raising international concerns about the possibility of genocide.
Pilip, a former Israeli military officer, has based his candidacy on his support for Israel, a position that is popular among Republicans. But Levy noted that Suozzi is in a more nuanced position.
Democratic voters are divided over whether Israel's war is justified and whether there should be a call for a cease-fire. A poll conducted in February by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research found that 50% of American adults believe Israel has gone “too far.”
But President Joe Biden and other Democratic leaders have so far rejected calls for a ceasefire, alienating progressive members of their own party.
While Mr. Suozzi is trying to balance opposing views within his party, Mr. Levy said he faces a similar situation to Mr. Biden.
“The war in Gaza is a particular problem for Democratic candidates,” he said. “President Biden and Suozzi's support for Israel could alienate some younger voters who have expressed concerns about the Israeli military's attack methods.”
Considering this, there is even a possibility that the special election in February will determine Mr. Biden's chances of being re-elected.
“This race has become nationalized and even internationalized,” Levy said.
Money flows into district races
This increased public attention has led to huge amounts of money spent on campaigns, as each party looks to score high-profile victories.
Pilip's team has raised a total of about $1.3 million since December 2023, according to data from the Federal Election Commission, which maintains public records of campaign contributions and expenditures.
Meanwhile, Suozzi's campaign has raised about $4.5 million in recent months, more than triple the amount raised by Pilip.
Gala Lamarche, former president of the liberal donor network Democracy Alliance, said the numbers are a clear sign of today's campaign financing environment.
“Politics is more like a sport than ever before,” Lamarche said. “A lot of people are paying close attention to these races, and a lot of people are donating directly to the campaigns.”
Lamarche described the campaign contributions as a sign of growing awareness among Democrats that their seats in Congress could be vulnerable.
Lamarche said it has sparked some of a wake-up call among Democratic-majority states after Democrats lost seats in past elections. All four Long Island House seats are now held by Republicans, after a 50-50 split just two years ago.
“One of the reasons Republicans control the House is because people don't pay enough attention to House races in blue states,” he said.
He points to examples of gerrymandering, which manipulates electoral district maps to favor a particular party, in states such as New York and California, as flaws in past Democratic strategies.
“Democrats have been too greedy for gerrymandering” in states where “there is Democratic hegemony,” Lamarche said. In 2022, for example, the New York State Supreme Court invalidated redistricted districts that were considered favorable to Democrats.
In December, the court allowed the Democratic-controlled Congress to try again to redraw congressional district maps, raising concerns among Republicans heading into 2024. Gerrymandering is prohibited by state law, but determining what qualifies can be difficult.
LaMarche said the ongoing battle to draw New York's congressional districts and the heated race on Long Island are both part of an overall phenomenon of growing party polarization.
The phenomenon is relatively new, he added. “The two major political parties in this country were never as ideologically polarized as they are today.”