Lahore, Pakistan – Four months after Pakistan was originally scheduled to hold national elections, the country's 128 million people faced a pre-poll crackdown on former Prime Minister Imran Khan's party and a climate of political and economic instability. Voters will have a chance to choose the next federal government on Thursday. .
More than 90,000 polling stations spread across the country of 241 million people will open at 8 a.m. local time (03:00 GMT).
In addition to the 266 seats in the National Assembly, voters will also elect members of parliament for Pakistan's four provinces. A party needs at least 134 seats to secure a full majority in parliament. However, parties can also form coalitions to reach that standard.
Voting will continue until 5pm local time (12pm Japan time), and if the results go well, a winner could be known within hours.
But analysts are already warning that the real test of Pakistan's democracy will begin after the elections, with the new government facing a host of inherited challenges and questions over its very legitimacy. I will do it.
Analyst and columnist Danial Adam Khan said: “The election results may bring temporary stability, but long-term sustainability can only be achieved if this cycle of political engineering is broken.'' “This is becoming increasingly clear to both the people and party leaders.” He cited widespread sentiment within Pakistan that the electoral process was influenced by the country's powerful military and did not give a fair chance to Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party. did.
On the eve of the election, three bombings, two in southwestern Balochistan and one in Karachi, Sindh, killed more than 30 people. More than 1,000 people have been killed in violence across the country in the past year. Despite the interim government's assurances, concerns remain about internet shutdowns in some areas and violence on election day.
And the economy is in a slump, with inflation hovering around 30 percent, 40 percent of the population falling below the poverty line due to the rapid depreciation of the currency, and recent opinion polls showing that only a quarter of the population Nearly 3 in 3 respondents said they believed things could be balanced. bad.
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Many voters and experts told Al Jazeera that these challenges are exacerbated by attempts to subvert free and fair elections.
The front-runner in Thursday's election is three-time former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, dubbed the “Lion of Punjab” by his supporters. If his Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PMLN) party wins the most seats, he could become prime minister for a record fourth time.
But critics claim his front-runner status is not due to an inspired campaign, but rather to the machinations of Pakistan's most powerful institution, the military.
Mr Sharif was in their crosshairs six years ago, first stripped of the prime ministership in 2017, and then sentenced to 10 years in prison on corruption charges in 2018, just two weeks before elections.
His ouster and the collapse of the PMLN appear to have been orchestrated to pave the way for the rise to power of former cricketer and philanthropist Imran Khan. The initial honeymoon seemed promising, but rifts emerged, and nearly four years later, Khan became the first Pakistani prime minister to be ousted by a vote of no confidence, continuing a defining trend in the country's 77-year history. . No prime minister has ever completed five terms. -Year term
Khan's relationship with the military reached a low point on May 9, 2023, when he was briefly arrested on corruption charges. In response, his party members and supporters rioted, targeting government and military facilities.
For a country under direct military rule for more than 30 years and with the military as an institution deeply embedded in the fabric of society, the state's response to Khan and the PTI was brutal. Thousands of party officials were arrested and key leaders forced to resign. Khan himself faced more than 150 lawsuits, many of them decidedly frivolous. He was ultimately jailed in August last year on a corruption case that led to his disqualification from elections. Last week, he received multiple convictions in various cases.
But the party's biggest blow ahead of the February 8 election came in January when it was stripped of its iconic election symbol, the cricket bat, for violating internal election rules. .
The decision meant Mr Khan and his party, arguably the most popular in the country according to opinion polls, had no choice but to field as independent candidates, each with their own symbol.
PTI also claims it has harassed and even kidnapped candidates, forcing them to suspend campaigning. The party has complained of restrictions placed on its rallies and media coverage of its plight. These allegations have led experts to consider this one of the most tainted elections in the country's history.
Mr Sharif's return last November coincided with the imprisonment of his rival, and within weeks all his convictions and charges were dropped. The Supreme Court's ban on him running in elections was lifted, clearing the way for him to lead the party.
With Khan in prison, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, the son of former president Asif Ali Zardari and two-time prime minister Benazir Bhutto, is seen as the second most likely candidate.
As a scion of the Bhutto dynasty and leader of the Pakistan People's Party (PPP), Bhutto-Zardari has campaigned across the country, although the PPP's core support base remains primarily in Sindh.
“A mockery of democracy”
The PTI crackdown has raised questions among many analysts about the legitimacy of the election.
Columnist Danial Adam Khan said while political repression is not entirely unprecedented, what happened ahead of the vote was a “blatant mockery” of the democratic process.
“Despite the PTI's own role in promoting a culture of smearing political opponents, their success at the polls will be determined by the people,” he told Al Jazeera.
Political analyst Benazir Shah acknowledged Pakistan's history of election rigging, but said young voters, the country's largest demographic, had a chance to make their voices heard.
“Of Pakistan's 128 million voters, more than 45 per cent are between the ages of 18 and 35. Historically, they have not contributed much in elections, but now is the time for them to shine and make their mark. It’s time to voice your opinion,” she said.
Pakistan has historically had relatively low poll turnout, with turnout exceeding 50% in only the last two elections (2013 and 2018) since 1985.
Voter turnout among people aged 18 to 30 has never exceeded 40% since 1997, reaching a high of 37% in 2018, according to election statistics.
Mr Shah, who is based in Lahore, said: “Despite all the allegations of pre-poll irregularities, I am hopeful of a high turnout with young people coming to the polls and voting for the party of their choice.'' “There is,” he said.
“Hope is so valuable”
Beyond concerns about political persecution looms a dire economic situation. Inflation and currency devaluation paint a dire picture.
Last June, when the country was on the brink of default, then-Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif succeeded in securing a $3 billion International Monetary Fund (IMF) loan package that was due in March. did.
Former Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi has said that dealing with the economy will be the next government's biggest responsibility. And to do that, he said, the country's next leader will need to have credibility.
“Pakistan is still suffering from the political and economic fallout from the rigged 2018 elections. [when Sharif was effectively forced out of contention]. But any perceived manipulation of the 2024 elections would have a huge negative impact on the economy,” he told Al Jazeera.
The latest opinion polls predict a PMLN victory, raising questions about whether the February 9 result can bring any stability to the country's volatile political situation.
Danial Adam Khan said he expected frustration and anger from those who feel disenfranchised, but warned against perpetuating a cycle of revenge.
Analyst Shah also expressed pessimism that if the PTI felt it was being unfairly represented, it would lead to further social polarization.
“If one political party and its voters are at odds, I feel that social divisions will further deepen.” [PTI] They will feel that they are being oppressed and that they were not given fair representation at the polls. This will cause great damage to the country in the long run,” she added.
Former Prime Minister Abbasi said he felt there was a lack of public interest in the elections, reflecting a lack of optimism.
He said it was critical for Pakistan to clarify the relationship between political, judicial and military institutions.
“The post-election scenario will depend on the ability of the country's leadership to deal with all these issues,” the former prime minister said. “Hope for a resolution is invaluable, so we can only hope that optimism prevails.”