The IEC expects turnout to be higher than in the 2019 election. (Delwyn Verasamy/M&G)
News Analysis
and othersLong queues at polling stations on Wednesday night appeared to undermine what the Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC) said was voter disillusionment with the country's political system.
The South African Electoral Commission (IEC) said on Wednesday that what was, at least anecdotally, a much higher voter turnout than in the 2021 local government elections was a credit to the commission and to political parties.
In the local elections three years ago, just 45.86% of the approximately 26 million eligible voters, or just over 12 million people, cast ballots. This was the lowest turnout since South Africa's first democratic elections in 1994, and the 2021 vote was the first time turnout fell below 50% since the 2006 local elections.
Since 2006, voter turnout in local elections has risen to 57.6% and 58% in 2011 and 2016, respectively, before recording a robust turnout of 66% in national and local elections in 2019. The highest turnout was recorded in the 1999 national election, when 89.3% voted.
It was therefore worrying to see a sharp decline in 2021, with the HSRC in its Election Satisfaction Survey report for that year's elections stating that voters lacked confidence in the country's political system and politicians.
“Some of our other research points to a very worrying decline in trust in democracy in South Africa. Of course, democracy is not just about voting – it's about public participation,” Narnia Bohler-Mueller, executive director of the HSRC's research programme on democracy, governance and service delivery, said at the time.
“But this [ disillusionment with the political system] This is the reality, and it is relatively low. [voter] erase [in 2021]. “
In a complete about-face on Wednesday night, the IEC scrambled to ensure that people knew that those queuing to vote should not be prevented from doing so, even after polling stations officially closed at 9pm.
The commission made the announcement after numerous videos went viral on social media showing snaking queues stretching up to five kilometres in length in the student town of Hatfield in Tshwane, two hours before polling stations were due to close.
Answering questions at a press conference on Wednesday evening, IEC chief electoral officer Si Mamabolo joked that he would be entitled to a bonus if voter turnout exceeded 70 per cent.
He attributed the apparently high turnout to a “confluence” of good work by the committee and political parties.
“The commission did its job in terms of popularising the elections and educating voters,” Mamabolo said, “but political parties also worked very hard during the elections, they worked very hard to mobilise their supporters, they worked hard to mobilise all South Africans to take part in the elections.” [in the elections]That's why so many people participated.”
Mobilisation by several political parties continued into Wednesday night, with ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula issuing a circular to the organisation's provincial secretaries and polling district coordinators urging the party to consult with the IEC to ensure no voters are denied entry.
“We have received reports of long and slow queues at many polling stations. All organisations must continue to mobilise voters and urge them to remain in queue until voting is completed,” Mbarulu said in the circular.
Market research firm Ipsos said over the weekend that voter turnout would be a “key variable” in this week's election.
Ipsos has modelled evidence that “low voter turnout is [would] It will be an advantage for the ANC and bring the ruling party closer to achieving 50% of the vote.”
Richard Calland, visiting adjunct professor at Wits Business School and founding partner at political risk consultancy Paternoster Group, wrote in the M&G on Monday that he had noticed the ANC's low approval ratings.
“However, historically South African opinion polls have tended to underestimate ANC support, especially when taking into account proper turnout models,” he said.
The results will be finalized on Thursday and within seven days, parties' election results should become clearer, as stipulated in the electoral law.
But results should be available much sooner than that, Mamabolo said at a press conference on Wednesday.
“we [the IEC] We have always been able to declare and announce results within this range. [seven-day] Period, and [we] We will strive to do so in this election,” he promised.