Every good story has an “all is lost” moment.
You know the kind. In The Lion King, Mufasa dies, Ron leaves Harry and Hermione in the Deathly Hallows, and Darth Vader defeats Obi-Wan Kenobi.
England are not there yet, but the 4-1 defeat in India is certainly the darkest moment in the Ben Stokes-Brendon McCullum epic.
The India tour could lead to a split in the team. England's defeat here in 2016 was Alastair Cook's last series as captain. In 2021, only six of the losing eleven in the last Test in India made it to the first home summer match. Not this time.
However, for the first time, the Stokes-McCallum axis is at a crossroads. McCullum said his team had been “exposed” in perhaps the most candid interaction with the media since taking charge two years ago. If the New Zealander was so open in public, there's no doubt he was even more honest with his players.
To be fair to Stokes and McCullum, this is their first loss of the series, but they have not won any of their last three games.
It's fair to say that England have improved in ways that are invisible to the team that won just one Test in 2017 before Stokes and McCullum took over, but we can't continue to use that as a barometer. Manchester City's excuse for not winning the Premier League is not that they were once in the third tier.
The questions hanging over England are being hammered home in the midst of the Stokes-McCallum era. The obvious conclusion is that they will tour Australia next winter. 23 matches have been played since Stokes and McCullum took over as managers, with 23 more to go before the final Ashes Test in early 2026.
We're on our way to the Bazball series finale, the culmination of a sports story unfolding in real time. The challenge for England is to make it something like Ross co-starring with Rachel in Friends, or David Brent saying to Finchy at the end of The Office, “Let's do this together.'' What we don't want is a nonsense ending for Sherlock or the overwhelming reveal that Buckles is the fourth man in Line of Duty.
How England evolve under Stokes and McCullum will always be the most fascinating part of the story. The summer of 2022 has been exhilarating, but like any band that doesn't hit the top spot with their first album, they won't always be remembered for it.
Will England move on from Bairstow and Foakes?
Any criticism of England's buzz-ball batting in India is a bit off base. This was the slowest scoring series under Stokes and McCullum. The thing is, when it was bad, it was terrible.
McCullum claimed that England became too timid as the series progressed, but the truth is that it was solved by India's skilled bowlers.
People like Ben Duckett, Ollie Pope and Ben Foakes were confused. Their shots in what was the final day of the fifth Test in Dharamsala were appalling, a misguided attempt to “put pressure on the bowlers”.
Joe Root returned to Joe Root after a reverse scoop dismissal in the third Test and showed what a batsman can do if he trusts his defense with a perfectly paced 84.
The England batsman does not need or intend to undergo any major surgery. Of the top six teams that finished this series, the only change was in the first Test against West Indies in July, even if Pope needed a strong summer to cement his place as number three and vice-captain. Even then, it would just mean that Harry Brook would be number five.
Decisions are made starting from number 7. Jonny Bairstow's returns with the bat are declining. Foulkes is a super gloveman, but without the width of his shot, the No. 7 often has to follow.
McCullum, who kept wickets in 52 of his 101 Tests in New Zealand, will understand the need to pick one keeper and stick with him. With Durham's Ollie Robinson unranked and Phil Salt an outside shout, it may be time to find a middle ground between Bairstow and Foakes.
McCullum said Tom Hartley and Shoaib Bashir had a chance to replace him, indicating that he was not a clear supporter of Jack Leach as England's number one spinner. A lot will depend on Leach's early-season fitness and how many overs Hartley and Bashir can take in the County Championship.
How long will Anderson continue?
Fast bowling is the area of the England team likely to change most dramatically in the second half of the Stokes-McCallum regime. James Anderson is 41, Chris Woakes is 35, Mark Wood is 34 and Stuart Broad has retired. His likely successor, Ollie Robinson, is 30 years old and regressing. Further opportunities are expected for Gus Atkinson, Josh Tan and Matthew Potts.
The decision of what to do with Anderson will be a thorny one for England. His health suggests there are no barriers to continuing, perhaps even to Australia, when he turns 43.
However, it took eight Tests for Anderson to take his last 15 wickets. Rise to 700. Half of those were played in India, but for comparison, Broad has scored 38 points in his last eight Tests, Woakes has scored 19 points in three Ashes matches and Tann has scored 10 points in two caps.
England need to decide whether Anderson is still their best option or whether other players would benefit and deliver more if he is given the chance.
More broadly, England have to come to grips with the fact that they can be favorites in almost every series they play outside of the series against Australia and India.
West Indies and Sri Lanka should be wiped out in the summer. Next winter they return to Pakistan, whom they beat 3-0 18 months ago, and New Zealand, whom they would have beaten 2-0 last year but for the next game in Wellington.
How does England want to be remembered?
Stokes, McCullum and the whole England team need to think seriously about how they want this era to be remembered. A breathtaking summer will not revolutionize Test cricket. Winning does.
Duckett, a successful and personable person, can be used as an example without criticizing him.
Duckett's average of 43.81 as an England opener compares favorably with Cook's 44.86. Perhaps the current England team would prefer Duckett's quick scores, but Cook hit 300 in Australia, which England won, and then did the same in India.
Cook is a knight of the realm, while Duckett has a variety of bucket hats so far. He compares to Ian Bell, Graham Swann, Stephen Finn and Jonathan Trott, and the same goes for Pope, Leitch, Robinson and Zak Crawley. The latter quartet all won the biggest series.
England spent two years communicating the manifesto. got it. We understand how they want to play, the atmosphere they want in the dressing room and how much they love Trump. By and large, we're on track. Now they have to win.
England's trust in the banks means they still control what happens next. They have time to write the next chapter.
Not the beginning of the end, but the end of the beginning.