Since former President Jacob Zuma announced his commitment to the Umkhonto Wesizwe Party (MK Party) in October last year, there has been a lot of noise about the party's influence on KwaZulu-Natal and national politics.
This trend has recently come to a head, with a poll published by the Social Research Foundation (SRF) showing the MK party could win up to 24% in the May 29 KZN state election. It looked like. According to the same poll, support for the ANC fell to 25%, DA% 15%, EFF 5% and IFP 24%.
“The ANC's house is on fire. It's over. They are in shock,” one analyst warned. “This shows a complete change of scenery in South African politics,” said another source, adding the poll was proof that the MK party “has halved support for the ANC in the province in the last four months.” he pointed out.
While there is little doubt that Mr Zuma's commitment to the MK party will garner a significant number of votes in KZN, some of these predictions and analyzes are problematic.
It is important to note that the SRF poll sampled 820 respondents by telephone. This is an extremely small poll in a state with more than 5.7 million voters. His self-reported margin of error was 5%, as telephone polls are generally less reliable than in-person polls. (This means you can add or subtract 5% to any result.)
But let's assume this poll accurately reflects the state's current voter support. So, is it true that the MK party has halved ANC support in just four months?
Well, yes and no.
Last year, Ipsos released a large-scale in-person poll. The fieldwork took place in June and July 2023, months before the MK Party was registered with the IEC and Mr Zuma became publicly involved with the party. According to the Ipsos poll, the ANC already had 22%, the DA 13%, the EFF also 13% and the IFP 17%.
So the ANC's approval ratings last June were actually the same, or a few percentage points lower, than they were in the SRF poll two weeks earlier. Importantly, the Ipsos poll showed that almost 20% of respondents said they did not know who to vote for or did not want to answer. Another 8% said they would not vote.
disillusioned ANC voters
What we can infer is that many of those who are “unsure or won't answer” from the middle of last year are disillusioned ANC voters who have now found a home in the MK party. Importantly, the ANC has known for over a year that it is in great difficulty in KZN, and Zuma's “Lazarus” performance has only made their difficulties worse, not the cause. is.
Perhaps due to the poor performance of the ANC, the EFF has also shown steady growth since the 2019 election, when it received 4% support. In the middle of last year, it was just 13%, according to Ipsos. If his recent SRF polls are correct, it will be a significant loss for the EFF and almost certainly for his MK party. This is perhaps unsurprising, as many of his disillusioned ANC voters have gravitated toward his EFF, and given their similar ideology, he is now happily supporting his MK party.
So how will all this affect the state? There is no doubt that neither the ANC nor the IFP will be able to win a full majority. Therefore, a coalition agreement is necessary. At this stage, the ANC-IFP coalition could reach just 50%. The IFP/DA or IFP/Multi-Party Charter Coalition does not reach 50%, as does the EFF/MK party or the ANC/EFF coalition.
Personally, I believe that an ANC/IFP/DA coalition is ideal not only for the unity of the province, but also for the much-needed improvement in service delivery.
While most of the focus is on KZN, it is worth remembering that there are other states with large Zulu-speaking voters who could be attracted to Mr Zuma's MK party. Just over 19% of Gauteng residents and 24.5% of Mpumalangans are isiZulu speakers.
If the MK party actually succeeds in winning 24% of the vote in KZN, it would win around 5% or 20 seats in parliament, which is about half the seats currently held by the EFF. . However, if the MK party is able to gather some support in Gauteng and Mpumalanga, it could further reduce ANC support nationally by several percentage points, making the need for an ANC/IFP/DA coalition at the national level may become visible. DM