During Israel's war in Gaza, Serbia has openly sought to avoid political involvement in the conflict, and Belgrade has maintained a relatively neutral position in an effort to maintain relations.
Analysts told Al Jazeera that Serbia does not want to have ties with Israel and at the same time become a presence that undermines Palestinian interests on the international stage.
Understanding the Balkans' unique perspective on Israel and Palestine requires some understanding of 20th century history.
Serbs and Jewish Israelis share an identity as victims of the Holocaust. Belgrade is also linked to the Palestinians and Arab states through Yugoslavia's historical role in the Non-Aligned Movement. Then, in 1967, Yugoslavia demonstrated its solidarity with Egypt and Syria by severing diplomatic relations with Israel, never to be restored until Yugoslavia disintegrated.
Since the breakup of Yugoslavia in the early 1990s, Serbia has prided itself on friendly relations not only with the Palestinians but also with Israel. Belgrade, on the other hand, has a record of voting in favor of Palestine at the United Nations and supporting a two-state solution.
Serbia sends weapons to Israel
However, relations between Serbia and Israel have expanded in many areas in recent years, and appear to have heated up even more during the war.
Balkan Insight reported on Wednesday, citing customs data, that Serbia's main state arms trading company, Yugoimport SDPR, exported weapons worth 14 million euros ($15.2 million) to Israel last month.
On March 12, the Balkan Investigative Reporting Network (BIRN) reported that since the Hamas attack in October 2023, Serbia has made at least two major shipments of arms and ammunition, “despite the transactions being shrouded in secrecy.” Reported that it was shipped to Israel.
Igor Novakovic, research director at the International Security Affairs Center (ISAC), told Al Jazeera that these shipments were likely part of a previous arrangement.
“The secrecy clause was probably put in place to prevent damage to Serbia's image and could in some ways be interpreted as support for Israel's war against Hamas,” he said.
Israel announced the latest and deadliest attack on Gaza since October 7, when Hamas, the Palestinian organization that rules the populated area, attacked southern Israel, killing 1,139 people and taking more than 200 Israelis prisoner. The attack began. Some prisoners have since been released, others have died, and dozens remain in captivity. More than 33,000 people have been killed by Israel in Gaza, including around 14,000 children.
World leaders have harshly criticized Israel's military actions in recent weeks as the civilian death toll rises while Israel continues to fall short of its stated goal of crushing Hamas.
Serbia has a history of selling weapons to Israel.
Lilly Lynch, a diplomatic writer covering the Western Balkans, noted that from 2004 to 2007 Belgrade was the second largest arms supplier after Washington, and said the BIRN report was “not surprising.'' ” he said.
“This news just shows that Belgrade has no principles, no values, no ideology and is willing to sell weapons to anyone without asking any questions,” she told Al Jazeera. Ta.
“As an added bonus, Serbia's arms sales, not only to Israel but also to Ukraine, send a quiet but powerful message to key figures in Washington. [lobbyists]a diplomat, or a member of parliament, that is, “We are an essential partner for the West in the Balkans. While neighboring countries can provide rhetorical support to Ukraine and Israel, we can provide concrete.'' ” she added.
“Restoration of friendly relations”
In 2020, relations between Serbia and Israel entered a difficult period.
At the time, then-President Donald Trump's administration sought to “normalize” relations between Serbia and Kosovo, forcing Serbia to move its embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem and adding Israel to the list of countries that would recognize Kosovo's independence. I was asked to add .
Belgrade explained that if Israel recognized Kosovo, the Serbian embassy would stay in Tel Aviv, but this happened after Israel recognized Kosovo's independence. Belgrade was so upset that it downgraded its diplomatic relations with Israel.
But last year, Serbia and Israel began mending the fence.
In July 2023, Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen visited Belgrade for the first time in 14 years as Tel Aviv's chief diplomat. During his visit, Cohen praised Israel's “closest ally” in the Balkans and declared that relations between his country and Serbia were “back on track.”
“Since October 2023, Serbia continues to pursue its existing policy aimed at restoring friendly relations with Israel,” Lynch explained.
“Serbia's foreign policy toward Israel is friendly but also somewhat restrained. Belgrade has certainly been modest about its support for Israel compared to most Western countries,” she added.
Amid the Gaza war, Serbia's efforts to keep positive relations with Israel under the radar reflects Belgrade's desire to maintain friendly relations with the so-called 'Global South', with Belgrade still in contact with Kosovo. “We are counting on the support of many countries that refuse to recognize our independence,” Lynch said.
“When the Hamas attack happened, Serbia condemned it and considered it an act of terrorism. But Belgrade was careful with its words and did not want to choose either. [side] Politically in conflict. [Foreign Minister Ivica Dacic] He also said that both Palestine and Israel are friends of Serbia and Belgrade does not want any political involvement,” ISAC's Novaković told Al Jazeera.
Belgrade's response to the Hamas-led invasion and subsequent Israeli war on Gaza is 'based on' [Serbia’s] We have traditionally had good relations with both Israel and Palestine,” Bodo Weber, senior associate at the Council for Democracy Policy, told Al Jazeera.
“Through its voting record at the United Nations, Belgrade, on the one hand, has vehemently condemned Hamas' attacks. On the other hand, Serbia has since sided with the West and other countries in calling for a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, while Israel rejected this, but at the same time strengthened contacts between Belgrade and Tel Aviv in order to maintain good relations.
Meanwhile, Serbia and other Balkan countries are aware of the potential security and geopolitical risks that could arise from a war in Gaza.
According to Vuk Vuksanovic, a senior researcher at the Belgrade Center for Security Policy, potential vulnerabilities include the possible “radicalization” of Muslim communities in southeastern Europe, excessive spillover of tensions from the Middle East into the region, and Examples include the refugee crisis.
He cited the “possibility” that the attack would take place during a match involving the Israeli team.
“As an example, two Israeli soccer clubs were also supposed to play European matches in Serbia, but this arrangement was canceled, probably for security reasons,” he said.
Will Serbia move even closer to Israel?
Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic is not an ideological leader.
He is known for opportunistically shifting Belgrade's foreign policy in response to changes in the international situation.
Four years ago, Vučić spoke at the annual conference of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) in Washington to strengthen Serbia's position in the American capital.
“Serbia was trying to use Israel to gain access to the Israeli lobby and, in turn, to get closer to the Trump administration,” Vuksanovic said. “There is no doubt that Serbia is once again trying to gain Israeli protection in Washington and use it as a shortcut to a stronger partnership with the United States.” [a potential] Trump becomes new president. ”
If Trump wins the US presidential election in November, ties between Belgrade and Tel Aviv could be strengthened.
“If relations between Serbia and Israel are to deepen further in the future, I suspect that it will have something to do with the expectations of the new Trump administration and at the same time the strengthening of ties among the populist right around the world, including enthusiastically pro-Israel voters.'' country [Viktor] Mr. Orbán's Hungary is one of Serbia's closest allies,” Lynch said.