The moment Israel and its allies shot down a salvo of Iranian missiles and drones this weekend, many are wondering what recent exchanges between Israel and Iran mean for the war in the Gaza Strip. I started.
The Iranian attack was in retaliation for the killing of seven Iranian officials, including three top Iranian military commanders, in what is widely believed to be an Israeli attack on an embassy building in Damascus this month. But it happened against the backdrop of a war in Gaza, where Israel is fighting Hamas, an extremist group funded and armed by Iran.
Israeli military analysts are divided over whether a more direct confrontation with Iran would change the war in Gaza, which is now in its sixth month. The war's next focus could hinge on whether Israel pursues Hamas in the southern city of Rafah, where more than a million Palestinians have fled amid a deepening humanitarian crisis.
Some analysts argued that the impact on Gaza depended on whether Israel responded with a major counterattack against Iran. Some insisted that Israeli military operations in the Gaza Strip would not be affected.
Shlomo Blom, a retired brigadier general and former director of strategic planning for the Israeli military, believes that if Israel responds with significant force to an Iranian attack, it could spark a multi-pronged war and divert the Israeli leadership's attention away from Iran. He said he may be forced to do so. Gaza.
General Blom said Israel may choose to delay its plans to invade Rafah if a large-scale fire breaks out in the area. Rafah is considered by Israeli officials to be Hamas' last stronghold.
“We are not comfortable with high-intensity warfare being waged in multiple theaters at the same time,” General Blom added.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to send ground troops to Rafah despite international pressure to withdraw the operation. On Sunday, Israeli officials said on condition of anonymity to discuss internal discussions that the Iranian attack would not affect the military's plans to invade Rafah.
General Blom said a major direct confrontation with Iran could end the war in Gaza. But such an end to the war would require a broad ceasefire involving multiple parties, including Israel, Iran, and Iranian-backed militant groups Hamas and Hezbollah.
“The idea is that in order to resolve a crisis, you first have to make the situation worse,” he said, adding that an escalation following a comprehensive ceasefire with Iran would require the country to persuade its regional proxies to stop fighting Iran. He explained that there is a possibility of pressure being applied. Israel.
Members of Israel's war cabinet did not issue a formal statement after Sunday's meeting, but another Israeli official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the meeting, suggested the country intended to respond to Iran's attack. There is uncertainty about when and how.
However, other military experts denied any link between the Iranian attack and the Gaza war.
“There is no connection at all,” said Amos Gilead, a retired major general who served in Israeli military intelligence.
General Gilead said the Israeli military has sufficient resources to fight Iran and continue the war against Hamas in Gaza.
Other analysts made similar points, arguing that the resources needed to fight Iran are different from those needed in Gaza. Israel needs fighter jets and air defense systems to counter Iran. In contrast, the military primarily needs ground forces, drones and attack helicopters to fight Hamas in Gaza, they added.
“There is no real tension between the two,” said Giora Eiland, a retired major general and former head of Israel's National Security Council.
Still, General Eiland said the success of the coalition, including the US, UK and Jordan, in repelling the Iranian attack meant that Israel could use the momentum to overcome its declining international standing by ending the Gaza war. He said that there is a possibility that he would be encouraged to do so.
The United States, Israel's closest ally, broadly supports Israel's decision to go to war in Gaza, but has expressed growing dissatisfaction with the rising death toll and has expressed opposition to the large-scale ground offensive in Rafah. is issuing a warning. The assistance the United States provided Israel on Sunday in shooting down Iranian drones and missiles could give the country more influence over Israel's partners.
General Eiland said such an outcome could help Israel foster goodwill in the international community and contribute to a solution to end the war in Gaza and skirmishes with Lebanon's Iranian-backed militia Hezbollah. , said he doubted whether Prime Minister Netanyahu would do so. Wallet such a way.
“He says he wants to achieve 'total victory' in Gaza and conquer Rafah, but that process could take two to three months,” he said, referring to the prime minister. “It's clear that Prime Minister Netanyahu has different ideas and priorities.”
aaron boxerman Contributed to the report.
