After six months of relentless attacks on Gaza, Israel is no closer to victory than at any point since October last year.
More than 33,000 people, the majority women and children, lie dead, although it remains unclear whether there are any plans for the enclave after the fighting ends.
More than 75,000 people have been injured and most of the population has been forced to evacuate.
About 1.5 million of the displaced people have taken refuge in the southernmost city of Rafah, but their future remains uncertain in the face of constant Israeli shelling and the threat of a ground invasion.
Meanwhile, Israel claims to have killed about 12,000 of its fighters, out of the tens of thousands of people killed, and continues to carry out attacks, taking advantage of suspicions about its presence there.
What does Israel want?
Beyond this attack, it remains unclear what Israel wants in Gaza, with no Palestinian, international or Israeli agreement on who will manage the enclave in the future.
Israeli forces have been dramatically reduced in numbers since large-scale deployments earlier in the war, with only one brigade reportedly stationed in southern Gaza, allowing the movement of Palestinian fighters. It is struggling to gain and maintain control of territory intersected by an unknown number of miles of tunnels. And access.
Areas including al-Shifa hospital were attacked a second time in mid-March, after Israel claimed it had been searched and cleared in November.
Israeli forces have returned to Gaza City's Zeitoun district, Shati refugee camp, and the city of Beit Hanoun, among other areas where they claim to have “wiped out terrorists.”
Western intelligence officials told the BBC in February that Hamas fighters appeared to have been reduced by only a third, aided by what appeared to be a network of tunnels still operational. It has put Israeli forces in desperate pursuit throughout the enclave.
The current number of troops is in sharp contrast to the 360,000 reservists mobilized to counter the Hamas-led attack on Israel on October 7. The attack killed 1,139 people, mostly civilians, and left 250 prisoners in Gaza.
What can Israel afford?
Returning it to Gaza in the numbers needed to prove its effectiveness would be expensive. After calling for the initial invasion of Gaza, the war caused workers to lose their jobs and Israel's economy to shrink by 7%.
Additionally, there remains the possibility of a new front opening on Israel's northern border with Hezbollah, which is based in Lebanon and is engaged in a constant artillery war.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has defined the purpose of the war as defeating Hamas and freeing the remaining unknown number of Israeli prisoners.
Wartime opinion polls during the brief cease-fire in December showed increasing support for Hamas across Gaza and Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud, the West's preferred candidate to manage the postwar process in Gaza.・Mr. Abbas' clear refusal was suggested.
Israel will likely “face armed resistance from Hamas for years to come, and the military has crippled Hamas's underground infrastructure that allows the rebels to hide out, regain strength, and surprise Israeli forces.” “The United States will have a hard time adapting to the threat situation,” the United States said of the threat situation. This is the evaluation for March.
Baraa Siban, an associate research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, noted that Palestinians respond to Hamas as a resistance group rather than as a political group, adding: “Is that support for Hamas? Who is going to fight back?'' I don't know if it will be done or not.” Real thing.
Meanwhile, Gaza's housing and life-saving infrastructure are in disrepair, with 84 percent of Gaza's health facilities damaged or destroyed, and there is a lack of electricity and water to operate the remaining health facilities, the World Bank said. This was revealed in a report released earlier this month.
According to the report, the cost to Gaza was $18.5 billion, equivalent to 97% of the combined gross domestic product (GDP) of Gaza and the occupied West Bank in 2022.
“Reconstruction will cost billions of dollars,” said Boaz Atziri, an associate professor at American University in Washington, D.C., from southern Israel.
“I don't see any appetite for something like that in Israel. It is possible that some of the Gulf states could contribute to this, but they would first have to create some kind of permanent regime, even if it is just a technocratic government. “You want to see a political solution so we don't come back here again.”
Why is Israel planning Gaza's future?
There appears to be international consensus that Israel will become involved in Gaza in some way in the future once the assault on the besieged enclave is over.
“There is no real plan for Gaza,” said Baraa Sivan of the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI). “Israel simply needed to respond strongly to this issue.” [Hamas-led] It has struggled to maintain that narrative through the Oct. 7 attacks.
“Broadly speaking, Israeli political opinions seem to fall into three categories. First, Prime Minister Netanyahu’s view is to eliminate Hamas and release the hostages.
“Secondly, there are those who want to occupy and control Gaza.
“Finally, there is a group that is putting so much pressure on the Palestinians that it is trying to spill over into the Sinai Peninsula. [breaching Egypt’s border]”
Several members of Netanyahu's government have proposed a “plan” for Gaza “the next day.”
In January, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant issued a vague statement regarding a U.S.-led multinational group overseeing the civilian administration of several “prominent Palestinian figures” — perhaps heads of powerful families emerging from the chaos of the war. The proposal was announced.
Gallant's plan sparked conflicting plans within the Cabinet, some of whom proposed settlements in Gaza, but they jointly muddied the waters by talking as much about Israel's political unity as the future of Gaza.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu published his one-and-a-half page plan in February, proposing a complete closure of Gaza's southern border with Egypt and an overhaul of Gaza's civilian government and education.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's plan drew heavy criticism from other countries, including Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and the United States.
In the face of the genocide committed in Gaza, the growing humanitarian catastrophe, and impending famine, there are few plans to tell the reality of Gaza residents. Most have lost loved ones and face the prospect of starvation in addition to physical and mental devastation. A war that shows no signs of stopping.
“It is true that Prime Minister Netanyahu wants to escalate the conflict into a permanent war,” Atsiri continued. [Hamas leader] The same goes for Yahya Sinwar. Neither is interested in facing the consequences of their actions. ”
No tracking of support for Hamas has been conducted in the Gaza Strip, which has been hit by a series of Israeli attacks that have destroyed at least 62 percent of housing (equivalent to 290,820 homes) and left more than 1 million people homeless. do not have. World Bank.
Meanwhile, with no way to seize the enclave and no clear, agreed-upon war goals in sight, Israel has little choice but to continue its assault on Gaza, and millions of Palestinians will pay the price. It turns out.