Duration: 4 minutes: Was Ukraine's lack of ammunition the cause of the fall of Avdiivka?
Sean Bell, Military Analyst
The fall of Avdiivka was Russia's most important battlefield victory since its capture of Bakhmut after a grueling nine-month war of attrition.
But were the losses on this battlefield due to a lack of ammunition in Ukraine, and was this rare Russian success the beginning of a dangerous new phase of the war?
Avdiivka was the scene of some of the fiercest and bloodiest battles of the war. Russian forces have been besieging a small Ukrainian city for the past four months.
Ukrainian forces were severely outnumbered by Russian troops, with some reports saying there were 10 times as many Russian soldiers as Ukrainian troops in front-line areas.
The Russian Air Force is also playing an increasingly important role in the conflict, taking advantage of its relative proximity to the sanctuaries of Russian airspace to deliver more than 60 bombs per day to frontline positions in Ukraine.
Ukraine's decision to withdraw from frontline cities appears to be militarily justified, but Volodymyr Zelensky and Joe Biden still want to talk about Ukraine's arms shortage and the $60 billion bill currently being delayed by the U.S. Congress. did not stop stressing the seriousness of further delays in securing aid. .
Ukraine hopes to secure long-term financial support from the United States, but what it needs most at the moment is arms and ammunition.
The EU has approved continued financial aid to Ukraine, but translating this commitment into ammunition available to soldiers on the front lines will be difficult.
For the past two years, most of the weapons provided to Ukraine have come from Western military supplies. However, their stocks are now low and there are no ready-made supplies commercially available.
Activating national defense industrial bases to design, manufacture and deliver alternative weapons is one of the only ways to meet Ukraine's future military requirements.
Western countries have been successful in procuring some alternative munitions, such as artillery shells, but this is not a priority for Ukraine, as these tend to be used in attrition wars that favor large armies.
In contrast, Ukraine took the lead in the war, with Western powers providing high-tech precision strike weapons such as Britain's Storm Shadow missile.
The weapon has proven highly effective in attacking Russian targets in occupied Ukraine, but is in short supply and Ukraine wants more.
However, this missile is 30 years old and many parts are obsolete, so industry cannot easily provide replacement stock.
Western countries could provide Ukraine with more modern weapons, either from stockpiles or directly from manufacturers. But technology is an asymmetrical advantage for the West on the battlefield.
There is always a risk that some of the weapons donated by Western countries will end up on the black market and into the hands of the Russians or Chinese, and Western countries cannot afford to jeopardize their national security. .
As a result, the only sustainable way to provide lasting military support to Ukraine is through concerted investment in the international defense industrial base. But the process of investment, development, production and testing all takes time, and Ukraine does not have time.
Although Russia achieved a rare victory by capturing Avdiivka, its forces suffered heavy casualties during the four-month siege of the city.
Attacking behavior in winter is difficult. The cold is unrelenting, natural cover is limited, and the ground is frozen, making it difficult to dig trenches.
Why was Avdiivka such a priority for Russia?
February 24 marks the two-year anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and President Vladimir Putin would have been very keen to demonstrate success on the battlefield to boost the morale of his military.
Putin will also be keen to demonstrate progress in his “special military operations” ahead of Russia's presidential elections next month.
However, most analysts believe that neither Russia nor Ukraine have sufficient military resources to launch a large-scale attack soon, and that next year will be marked by a series of small-scale, indecisive actions on the front lines. I believe it is possible.
But if the West fails to address Ukraine's dire military needs, it creates an opportunity for Russia's military that Mr. Putin may want to take advantage of.
