Islamabad, Pakistan — Five days have passed since the February 8 election, but Pakistan is still yet to know which political party will form the next government or who will be the next prime minister.
The election lasted three days with divided powers amid mounting questions surrounding the fairness of the conditions in which it was held, allegations of serious manipulation and challenges to the accuracy of the vote count. .
The leading candidate with at least 96 seats is a candidate from former Prime Minister Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party, who appeared without the electoral symbol of a cricket bat. He was forced to contest the election as an independent.
Three-time former prime minister Nawaz Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PMLN) has won 75 seats, making it theoretically the single largest party in parliament. That's less than a third of the 266 seats voted on February 8th.
Pakistan People's Party (PPP), led by former Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, came in third place with 54 seats.
But will the PTI-backed independents be able to form or join the government, what options does the party have, and what will happen next for the country?
What does it take for a government to be established?
For a party or coalition to form a government, it must win a simple majority of 134 of the 266 seats voted in parliament.
A coalition government can be made up of multiple parties or can include independent parties that win seats.
Independent candidates can formally join or form alliances with political parties seeking to form a government while retaining their personal identity.
Technically, PTI-backed independents could form the core of the government in alliance with other parties, and would need the support of political parties to reach 134 seats, but such a path is unlikely. has several challenges.
First, it will be difficult to maintain stability. Such a government would be dependent on the personal whims of independent parliamentarians, making it more susceptible to defection and possible collapse.
Second, the PTI bloc, a collection of independents, must be deprived of access to some of the 70 seats reserved for women and minorities, which are distributed proportionately among political parties represented in parliament. No.
However, if PTI-backed independents join another political party, they will be subject to the discipline of their parent party, potentially impairing their ability to act in accordance with PTI's policies and programs.
How soon after the polls must a government be formed?
Bashir Nabi Malik, a Karachi-based lawyer, said that according to the constitution, a new parliament must be convened within three weeks after elections.
“The law states that the National Assembly will convene on the 21st, the day after parliamentary elections are held, unless called earlier by the president,” he told Al Jazeera.
The 21-day deadline ends on February 29, unless President Arif Alvi convenes a meeting sooner.
On the day of the session, if the two parties eventually form an alliance and agree to form a coalition, MPs will be asked to vote for the Prime Minister, Speaker and Deputy Speaker.
The opposition leader will also be chosen from one of the political parties that has decided not to sit on the Treasury benches.
Which political party moved?
PMLN supremo Nawaz Sharif, in a speech at the party's headquarters in Lahore on Friday, urged his brother Shehbaz Sharif, also a former prime minister, to lobby other parties that won multiple seats in the elections and to support the party. He said that he had instructed them to build a cooperative system within the country. Governing Alliance.
PMLN leadership has already held talks with PPP officials and representatives of the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), which won 17 seats in Sindh.
Still, the two parties have not said whether they intend to move forward with an alliance or what its contours will be.
What about PTI? Will independents join another party?
Meanwhile, the PTI has focused its efforts on protesting the alleged rigging of the election results.
Party leaders claim that the actual results of a number of seats have been overturned, depriving candidates of victory and thus ensuring that their seats remain under the magic number of 134 seats.
PTI leader Syed Zulfiqar Bukhari has vowed not to join hands with any of the major political parties.
He told Al Jazeera: “Discussions and consultations within the party are ongoing and there are many options on the table.” “The participating parties will be decided soon, but it will not be one of the three or four major parties.”
A total of 13 political parties won at least one seat in the parliamentary elections, with six of them holding a single seat.
If a PTI-backed candidate decides to join another political party, he must announce his decision within three days of notification of official results by the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP). ECP has not yet released official results.
Will forming a separate political party be an option for independents backed by PTI?
Kanwal M. Dilshad, a former ECP secretary and analyst, said in theory PTI-backed independents could form a new party, but the registration process could take several days.
However, it will not help the PTI form a government at this point as no new party is participating in the current election process.
Malik, who is also a Supreme Court advocate, agreed with Dilshad's assessment, saying that independent candidates backed by PTI can form a new political party, but that will not affect the formation of the next government.
“it is [also] There are questions as to whether such political parties established after the elections will enjoy the constitutional protections enjoyed by other political parties that were registered with and registered with the ECP before the elections in question. he added.
Another senior lawyer, Abid Zuberi, said independents could also declare themselves a group of “like-minded” members. However, it is not considered a party either.
“They can collectively decide on parliamentary matters, but they are treated as independents rather than political parties, so they cannot receive a designated seat allocation,” Zuberi told Al Jazeera.
Will PTI be able to regain its symbol and party status?
The party's leader, Imran Khan, has been imprisoned since August 2023 and has faced a massive state-led crackdown since at least May last year, but the biggest setback they have faced is the electoral crisis. It was the loss of a symbol.
They were accused by the ECP of violating the law on the conduct of intra-party elections. The party claims this was a decision aimed at reducing its popularity and influence.
The party may seek relief from the country's Supreme Court, seeking reversal of the ECP's decision. However, even if the verdict is in the party's favor, it is unclear whether independents backed by the party will be allowed to formally represent PTI in the new parliament.
“In letter and spirit, the PTI must hold elections. However, according to the ECP, as far as the results of this election are concerned, this party does not exist and therefore it will not allow the party to join the current parliament. I don’t think so,” said Zuberi, a former senior lawyer. President of the Supreme Court Bar Association.
Senator Ali Zafar, a senior PTI leader and a member of the legal team, said the party was not sure whether it would get relief from the Supreme Court regarding the symbol.
“I think the symbol issue is probably over now as it was meant to contest elections. I don’t think it will have any impact on the post-election scenario. Rather, now PTI-backed candidates The question is which political party they will join,” he told Al Jazeera.
Malik also criticized the ECP's initial decision to remove the symbol, saying there was little evidence at this point that the move could be reversed anytime soon.
“We also see a lack of urgency for the Supreme Court to resolve this matter for a hearing, and it may not be possible to complete this entire exercise before the first hearing.” he said.