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Interview starts from 17:00
Jeremy Maggs: Now, we read that South Africans are likely to return home, even though South Africa is facing a multi-dimensional crisis on multiple fronts, a multi-dimensional crisis, according to the risk industry. Bronwyn Williams from agency Flux Trend is also on hand. Welcome, Bronwyn. He has two simple questions. What's driving this trend? Are we seeing real momentum here?
Bronwyn Williams: Well, let's start with the second part. Basically he had two sources where this trend was born. One is the Institute of Tax Accountants, the other is real estate agents across the country, particularly in Johannesburg, both of whom recognize that there is a solid data pattern from a South African perspective, and that in fact quite wealthy individuals are returning to South Africa. I am. , or nativism (sic), whatever you want to call it. In other words, the wealthy are returning to their hometowns.
As for why this is happening, we need to look at the world around us, the ruling situation of the general state of the world. It's no secret that South Africa is a very cheap place to live, especially if you have some money to spend. It's not that foreigners also come here and retire or live here, or that they actually encourage it, but that the government allows them to work on a digital nomad-like basis. I know that.
For people with money, we are a very attractive place. Because if you have money, you can pretty much protect yourself from all the challenges we just discussed.
As I've said publicly before, you can go and live in a neo-feudal enclave behind a nice walled garden. You can have armed guards patrolling your little paradise. You can have your own private school and your own workplace within its walls. You don't have to actually leave and deal with the chaos around you. Off-grid water and off-grid electricity are available. All these problems can be avoided if you have enough money. If you are bringing foreign exchange into South Africa, the arbitrage conditions are simple. Therefore, it makes economic sense if you have the money and means.
Read: Why South Africans are flocking to the Netherlands
The reason why now is that there is an interesting pattern there, that a significant number of people who at least had the means to leave after apartheid left South Africa as an insurance policy against the country's decline. They took their families overseas, going to places like Australia, England, Europe, and the United States, and stayed long enough to essentially become permanent residents. That wave of people now have second passports. They have backup plans and insurance plans that they didn't have 10, 20 years ago. And now they're coming back. Because even if it seems unstable, even if things go well, this place is a great place to live. Having a backup plan means you have some cash abroad and a second passport. That's a cynical view, but the timeline checks that.
Listen: What expats need to know before returning to SA
Jeremy Maggs: For another group, this may be the reality for people who can no longer afford to live abroad and who, in many ways, have no choice but to come home and say, “Well, I tried.'' , but we couldn't do it.
Bronwyn Williams: Well, I would probably disagree a little bit on that. However, I think there are some people who fall into that category, but if you don't get there, it's just as expensive to leave South Africa and go somewhere else as it would be to go back home.
Immigration is not cheap. Frankly, most people who are financially disappointed in their future abroad cannot afford to return home.
When your lifeline is severed, you are stuck in place. So I think what we're talking about there is a much smaller group.
Jeremy Maggs: What about the old driver who is called homesick?
Bronwyn Williams: it's true. This is something I talked about a little bit, so it's a softer one. This is purely speculative, but there are some pretty big differences between the cultures of Europe, Australia, and South Africa, especially the ones we're talking about right now. In that South Africa is clearly very family-oriented across all the different racial and demographic groups. We are very homely (sic) and very connected to our family and community. We are deeply codependent here. The main reason is that we have a government that doesn't and won't work for us.
For example, when we run out of water in Joburg, we have to rely on the community to get well water.
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While we often have intergenerational families staying in our homes, South African expatriates who are posted to places like Australia and Europe are not only isolated from their deep ties and communities; You will find yourself in such a society. I have a deep bond with myself. Especially in many European countries, there is a feeling of not depending on your neighbors or even your family. We actually rely on governments because they actually provide policy, and this has a significant isolating and insulating effect.
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As you describe, this is a very… type of society, and for someone who comes from a very community-driven community, it's very difficult to get that deep bond that you miss when that's gone. Not necessarily. Notice if you grew up in such a community. So there is an element of culture shock.
Jeremy Maggs: Given the wealth of skills in this country, I wonder if any work or thought has been put into impacting the skills and experiences that expatriates bring back with them when they return to South Africa. Certainly on the positive side of the equation.
Bronwyn Williams: Perhaps that's what we'll see. While these kinds of trends here are important, it's important to note that almost a third of those who left are coming back, which means a lot of people are coming back. Obviously there's been turnover, more people leaving and leaving at the moment, but there's a large portion of people coming back.
That trend back, that trend line is very recent. It's really been about the past year. Therefore, such effects will not yet be seen.
But logically, let's call them foreigners returning to their homeland, or economic migrants. Just like if you came from any other part of the world, to be fair you should at least come back with some business connections or connections. They would have survived and built careers in these countries over the past few decades. That means we, as a community, have the potential to open up greater avenues for imports, exports and international trade.
Of course, it is up to us to decide how much we welcome the return of the prodigal sons and daughters, and whether we are able to benefit from the new opportunities that open up.
Jeremy Maggs: I'm wondering about the whole concept of re-assimilation into South African society. You mentioned boreholes sarcastically. I think that's one of the things people have to start thinking about. It's a different country that people come back to. What advice would you give someone who has been living overseas and is currently considering returning home, but given that it's not the same place it was 20 or 30 years ago?
Bronwyn Williams: Well, I think some people go and plan to go and get so angry at their home country that they leave and don't look back. Don't be like Lot's wife and just keep walking and don't look back. But I think the kind of people who come back have a chance. As I said earlier, I do not agree that these are mainly people who failed overseas. I think it's quite the opposite. I think these are the people who are successful, who have built bonds, who have built opportunities, who have accumulated enough capital to come back and actually live a much higher quality of life than when they left.
Read: Plan B destinations becoming increasingly popular for South Africans
That's also a slightly cynical perspective. Is this fair? Is it fair that people who fled during tough times come back and essentially have a better standard of living than other people? It may be a challenge to assimilate, but I think most of the people who come back do it because they want to be here. It's true that no one comes back, or very few do because they don't have a choice.
Certainly, if we're looking at real estate trends and the properties that these people are buying, we have the data there. It's literally a property that costs between R3 million and over R6 million. They are not people who are struggling, they are a choice. They know what they're getting and understand the trade-offs. Most of these people would have known this news all along and would actually be surprised at how life goes on even after installing solar panels and posting guards at the gates. As I said, the standard of living here is still good compared to what they probably would have left behind.
Listen: Returning expatriates revitalize Gauteng housing market
Jeremy Maggs: Just to get you started, are there any particular regions or countries where more South Africans are returning home?
Bronwyn Williams: It looks like it's generally around the European continent, in that kind of space. However, it is common for most people to move away from it. So I think that's an unfair comment.That's all [for] For most people, that was the most common exit direction. Yes, that's going to be the biggest part of people coming back.
Jeremy Maggs: Bronwyn Williams, futurist at Flux Trends, thank you for your time.
