chiang mai, thailand – On September 5, Thailand announced a new cabinet. This is a coalition government that includes both the pro-Thai Party, which calls itself a democracy, and parties that support the military.
For both sides, it was a deal with the devil. The Thai Contribution Party joined forces with the military that overthrew the government in 2014 and its predecessor party in 2006, and massacred dozens of its supporters during protests in 2010.
For the military, forming a government with the same political group it had worked hard to keep out of power raised questions about its intervention and the turmoil of the past 18 years.
Ken Lohatepanon, a political science doctoral student at the university, said that six months later, the To-Thai Party is still trying to win support from a reform-minded public in the face of such a controversial compromise. There is no evidence that the necessary policies or reforms have been implemented. of Michigan.
Referring to ousted former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, Rohatepanon said, “Some pro-Thai voters maintain their loyalty to the party and the Thaksin brand, and will stick with the party no matter what agreement is reached.'' “There's probably a sizeable core of people who will.” In the 2006 coup.
“But for the ‘more moderate’ pro-Thai voters who were undecided between voting for Pro-Thai Party and Move Forward in the last election, they have not done enough to justify major compromises. I don’t think so.”
A spokesperson for the Thai Contribution Party did not respond to a request for comment.
This unholy alliance broke months of political deadlock.
The Forward Party (MFP), which campaigned for more radical democratic reforms and was an opposition coalition partner of the Thai Contribution Party, won the most seats in parliament, but was prevented from forming a government by the military-appointed Senate.
The MFP, in particular, drew the ire of conservatives by promising to reform the strict lese majeste law, which criminalizes criticism of the king.
Thai Contribution avoided such controversial proposals and ultimately abandoned the MFP and formed a government, shortly after securing amnesty for Thaksin and his sister Yingluck Shinawatra, who was ousted in a military coup in 2014. did.
Thaksin was released last month from the hospital where he was serving his prison sentence.
economic relief
The Thai Contribution Party and its predecessor parties were known for economic policies that supported poor farmers and stimulated the broader economy. Now, the Thai-contributing government seems to be hoping to offset the political compromises it has made with similar economic benefits, which is a direct nod to one of its election slogans: “edible democracy.” summarized.
But so far, that hope has not materialized. The party's election promise to give Thais below a certain monthly salary a 10,000 baht ($279) digital wallet was blocked by the central bank, and initial economic data were worse than expected.
“Economic growth last year was very weak at only 1.9%. This is not good for a party that campaigned on its economic capabilities. “This seems like a minimum requirement to give the country a chance of winning the next election, but I don't know if it's enough,” Rohatepanon said.
Sietan Hansakul, senior analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit, said six months is probably too short a period to judge the economic performance of Thailand's contributing government.
“Thailand’s main GDP is [gross domestic product] While the numbers were disappointing, the details reflect that the country was run by a cautious government for most of 2023, with slowing growth having a lot to do with policy paralysis.” he said. “We expect Thailand's GDP to strengthen this year as government spending normalizes.”
Mr Hansakul expects Thailand's exports to increase due to increased infrastructure spending and China's domestic economic stimulus, while he expects trade with the US and European Union to “remain strong”.
“We have revised Thailand's real GDP growth rate to approximately 3.4% in 2024,” he said.
Questionable reform efforts
However, economic success alone will not suffice for a return to power in the next election in 2027, especially given growing skepticism about the Party's commitment to democracy and human rights. It may not be enough to make sure.
Chonticha Jungloo, an MFP activist-turned-parliamentarian from Pathum Thani province, spoke to Al Jazeera by phone after the vote to revoke three orders issued by the military junta in 2016.
The order gives the military control of the administration in the reactionary south, where Islamic separatists have waged a long-running insurgency that has killed thousands and accused the military of gross human rights abuses. .
“We want to repeal all laws that violate human rights,” Chonticha said, adding that the unanimous vote showed that the MFP and the Thailand Contribution Party “can still agree on some points.”
Although there have been “significant improvements” under the Thai-led government compared to the previous military-backed government, including plans to revive the stalled push to legalize same-sex marriage, reservations remain. She said there was.
“The new government is not only the PTI, but also the party that supported the military regime,” she said, adding that the PDP sometimes appeared afraid to push for reforms that would anger the military. he added.
Chonticha is one of a number of activists facing lese majeste charges for writing an open letter to the king in 2020 calling for reforms to the monarchy and criticizing the royal budget.
“It's clear that the new government doesn't want to touch on this issue or talk about it,” she says. “Even now, with a new administration in place, we are seeing a number of new lawsuits filed against people who are trying to express their views.”
The big question is whether the Thai Contribution Party will cooperate in a more serious crackdown on MFPs. The party, like its predecessor the Future Forward Party, faces a variety of lawsuits that could result in its leaders being arrested or the party disbanding. Since the Senate is not eligible to vote on the next prime minister, many expect the MFP to emerge victorious without undemocratic interference.
“I still feel a little bit that I can't trust them,” Chongticha said of the Thai Contribution Party and its relationship with the party.
Rohatepanon said that neither the failures nor the successes of the Thai Contribution Party will contribute to a major change in public opinion, which remains overwhelmingly in favor of the MFP.
The Progressive Party has a 10 percentage point lead over the Pro-Thai Party in the 2023 popular vote, and a recent poll conducted after the Pro-Thai Party formed an alliance with the pro-military party showed the MFP with a 20-point lead. Shown.
A 28-year-old woman working in the tourism industry in Chiang Mai, who voted for MFP last year, said there was probably nothing the Thai Contribution Party could do to win votes. She said this was partly because the party was working with conservative forces, but also because it generally wanted to see “a change from the status quo”. [the] “New generation”.
“For Thai contributors, I feel the following.” [I’m] I read the same books over and over again,” she said.