With Eskom's electricity production improving in the final quarter of last year, the country avoided a technical recession, with SA economic growth increasing by 0.1% from Q3 to Q4 2023, as expected.
Real gross domestic product (GDP) growth will increase by 0.6% in 2023, compared to 1.9% in 2022, according to the latest provisional indicators.
Graphic: Statistics SA
According to the Bureau of Statistics, the transportation, storage and communication industry increased by 2.9% in the fourth quarter, contributing 0.2 percentage points to GDP growth. Increases in economic activities such as land transport, air transport, transport support services, and communications have been reported.
Mining and quarrying increased by 2.4% in the fourth quarter, personal services by 0.9% and finance, real estate and business services by 0.6%. Expenditures as a percentage of real GDP increased by 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2023.
“Electricity shortages in the fourth quarter were 45% lower than in the third quarter. This was made possible by our efforts,” Nedbank said. With notes. The real GDP growth rate is estimated to be approximately 0.3% compared to the previous quarter. Analysts polled by Reuters also expected the economy to grow in the fourth quarter.
Lowest annual growth rate since 2009
The 0.6% annual increase in real GDP in 2023 was mainly driven by increased economic activity in finance, real estate, and business services. transportation, storage, and communication. personal service. According to Statistics SA, the same is true for the manufacturing industry.
In January, the central bank's Monetary Policy Committee revised down the GDP growth rate for 2023 to 0.6% from 0.8% in November. Domestic GDP in the third quarter of 2023 was -0.2%, weaker than the SA Reserve Bank's forecast, but we expect some improvement in the fourth quarter with production expanding by 0.4%. He also said. The Ministry of Finance also projected GDP growth in 2023 to be 0.6%.
Graphic: Statistics SA
GDP in 2023 exceeded the pre-pandemic 0.3% growth in 2019, but it was the worst growth rate since 2009 excluding the year of the pandemic.
The South Wales Reserve Bank's GDP growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025 were unchanged from January at 1.2% and 1.3% respectively. The Treasury Department was more optimistic in February, predicting 1.3% in 2024 and 1.6% in 2025.
