- Milton Nkosi
- BBC News, Johannesburg
As the BBC's Milton Nkosi reports, millions of vulnerable South Africans are at risk of missing out on vital social security payments starting next month due to a scandal over government contracts. ing.
“I am very worried. I even have sleepless nights. I don't know what I would do without this money. My family will starve,” Magebaso Mamaire told the BBC.
The 78-year-old lives in a town east of the main city of Johannesburg. She has her family of six including her two children and her four grandchildren.
She is one of the 17 million vulnerable South Africans who rely on the government's social grant scheme to survive.
Shockingly, one in three people in the country falls into this group, which includes single mothers, people with disabilities, pensioners and veterans.
This social safety net is one of the largest in Africa and one of the proudest achievements of the 23 years that the African National Congress (ANC) has ruled South Africa since the end of white minority rule.
But now it is under threat.
The government contract with the company, which handles the transfer of funds, is due to expire on March 31st, and there are concerns that the next payment, worth around $67m (£55m), will not be paid on April 1st as planned. There are growing concerns about
There have been protests in recent weeks over the failure of the responsible government agency, the South African Social Security Agency (Sassa), to agree a new contract as a deadline approaches.
Mr. Sassa cannot claim that there was not enough warning of the crisis or enough time to think of a solution.
The country's highest court ruled more than two years ago that the contract with private company Cash Paymaster Services (CPS) was invalid, but no alternative provider appears to have been found.
Nevertheless, the country's Minister of Social Development has insisted that the subsidies will be paid on time, but has not said specifically how they will be disbursed.
Ms Batabile Dlamini has faced growing calls for her resignation and has been forced to deny opposition accusations that she is responsible for the “avalanche of failure” that led to the current crisis.
In numbers: South Africa's social grants
- 17 million people have received payments (growing to 18 million by 2020)
- A 10% increase in social grant spending announced in this year's budget
- Bills total $11bn (£9bn) a year
- 10% of government spending goes to social grants
- 3x the amount SA spends on defense
The Constitutional Court ordered the ministry to come up with serious answers by Wednesday.
But if we temporarily assume the worst-case scenario and a solution is not found and the payment never arrives, what actually happens?
“It would be a crisis of epic proportions. People would literally go hungry. So they might take to the streets in search of food,” economist and Wits University professor Janie Rossow told the BBC.
He said the harm is not limited to those who received direct payments.
“It will also impact the economy of small towns and villages that sell goods to beneficiaries.”
Judging by what I've seen in towns and villages across the country, when beneficiaries are standing in long, snaking queues waiting for payments, there could be serious tensions if people don't receive their subsidies. There is enough.
Sibongile Mgomezulu, 18, receives a child support subsidy for her three-month-old baby.
“I'm unemployed now, so I'll use the money I get to buy baby food,” she told the BBC.
She says if she doesn't receive the money next month, she will have to ask her mother for help.
On its own, the monthly payments may not seem that high. Prices range from 350 to 1,000 rand ($30 to $80).
However, this number will quickly increase as the unemployment rate exceeds 25%.
In his Budget speech last month, Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan set aside $11bn (£9bn) to pay for this year's social grants bill.
This is equivalent to 10% of the total funds that the government must spend, and three times the amount of defense spending.
In many ways, social grants are a kind of peace tax in countries with huge inequality.
As long as they are paid, the wealthy can sleep soundly in their beds.
Would that still be the case if millions of our fellow citizens were allowed to starve?
Magebaso Mamaire's situation back in Johannesburg's Kwathema area is a clear example of the urgent need for the government to resolve this crisis.
“The pension we receive from the government is our family's only source of income,” she says.
“I use it to buy food and electricity…I pay my grandchildren's school fees and pay my rent.”
The subsidy scheme is a massive poverty alleviation program that could determine the fate of the governing ANC.
If this plan collapses, there is a good chance that millions of beneficiaries will punish a 105-year-old liberation movement at the voting booth.
There are therefore enormous political implications for those overseeing this self-imposed crisis.