Not guaranteed: Prime Minister Amadou Bah is the ruling party's presidential candidate for the February 2024 presidential election after President Macky Sall said he would not seek a third term. Photo: Seiro/AFP
USenegal, often seen as a bastion of stability in coup-hit West Africa, is preparing for a potentially dangerous presidential election under international scrutiny.
There is still no clear front-runner in the February 25 vote, with an unprecedented 20 candidates running, including a jailed dissident.
Fears of pre-election violence have not materialized, despite disruptions to the candidate verification process and the removal of prominent opposition figures Ousmane Sonko and Karim Wade from the race. But tensions persist in the days before the election campaign officially begins on February 4.
“I think he will be elected in the first round on February 25,” Prime Minister Amadou Ba told French news networks France 24 and Radio France International.
Ba was chosen by President Macky Sall to succeed him after he announced in July that he would not seek a third term. This will be the first Senegalese election without an incumbent.
Analysts agree that neither Ba nor the other candidates are guaranteed to advance to the second round.
Sidi Diop, deputy editor of the daily newspaper Le Soleil, said that of the 12 presidential votes held under universal suffrage since Senegal gained independence from France in 1960, “this was the most open.'' It's an election.''
In an election that draws attention both domestically and internationally, the final outcome is just one of the unknowns.
Senegal, which ranks among the world's bottom 30 countries on the United Nations Human Development Index, plans to start producing hydrocarbons this year.
Despite growing trends in the region, Senegal has never experienced a military coup, and Western countries praise its history of stability, democracy and peaceful transfers of power.
But since 2021, Senegal has experienced frequent bouts of deadly unrest caused by violent conflict between the state and opposition agitator Ousmane Sonko. The violence left dozens of people dead and hundreds arrested.
Human Rights Watch and others have condemned Senegal's crackdown on opposition leaders, the media, and civil society, to which the government has responded by saying “all freedoms will be exercised without hindrance.''
As Russia's influence expands in the Sahel region and neighboring countries battle jihadist insurgencies, Sall has maintained strong ties with the West. But he called for diversification of partnerships and declared that Africa's status as Europe's “private property” was over.
Sonko's Pan-African rhetoric and hardline stance against former colonial power France also resonated with disaffected Senegalese youth. Sonko, who came third in the 2019 presidential election, has been imprisoned on a series of charges since late July.
The Constitutional Council rejected his candidacy in February's general elections, but he and his disbanded Pastev party fielded an alternative candidate, Basilu Diomai Fay.
Mr. Fay is also detained, but his candidacy has been approved by authorities, making him the first candidate scheduled to run in Senegal's elections to be jailed.
Analyst Sidi Diop named Fay as the winner, along with Ba and former deputy minister and mayor of Dakar, Khalifa Sall. But he said the confusion caused by the pro-Sonko camp could turn voters away.
“One of Pastev's problems is that he is scaring voters,” Diop said, adding that “the working class won the election” because they spend their days finding work and income.
“There needs to be stability in these ranks,” he says.
Ba praised incumbent President Sall's accomplishments during his time in office, but said “better and faster action” was needed.
The infrastructure projects implemented by the Sal government did not benefit everyone. His successor will carry on the legacy of President Sall's difficult past few years, including the coronavirus pandemic, Russia's war in Ukraine and the exodus of tens of thousands of Senegalese to Europe.
Mr. Ba also faces significant challenges and rivals from within his own camp. Questions have been raised over his ability to win, leading to speculation that those in power may want to postpone the election.
This comes after Mr Wade, who was excluded from the presidential election, called for an investigation into the structure of Senegal's Constitutional Council, which announces the winner of elections.
Against all expectations, MPs from the president's party supported the move.
A working-class Senegalese voter, speaking anonymously, said the delay was unacceptable.
If anything, Jill Yabi, executive director of the Wasi think tank, predicts there could be “tension points” when the results are announced. — AFP
