An overview showing the trajectory of light from vehicles passing through Braamfontein, Johannesburg.Going into darkness to unload luggage
South Africa's economy is expected to grow modestly in the fourth quarter of 2023 compared to the third quarter, when GDP contracted by 0.2%.
Economists say the burden relief will become less severe in the second half of 2023, boosting the country's GDP.
Economists at Nedbank expect real GDP growth to be around 0.3% in the fourth quarter, but power outages fell by 45% in the same period due to a sharp drop in energy demand during the Christmas season. said.
Economists at the bank said load shedding improved in the fourth quarter, but the underlying energy problems remained unresolved. They said power outages are expected to be moderate throughout the year due to increased planned maintenance and plans for further expansion of the power grid.
Transnet's operational failures are also expected to continue to hamper sectoral growth, according to Nedbank. The bank said plans are in place and backlogs at ports are decreasing, but it will take at least until 2025 to see any meaningful improvement.
The Bureau of Economic Research (BER) said it expects some economic expansion on a quarterly basis in the fourth quarter, meaning the economy can avoid falling into recession.
BER said the agricultural industry was a “big unknown”, with a 9.6% decline due to several headwinds including the avian influenza outbreak and flooding in the Western Cape, weighing on GDP growth in the third quarter. Ta.
BER's GDP growth forecast for 2023 is 0.6%, in line with the Treasury's forecast.
In the Budget tabled by Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana last month, the Treasury announced South Africa's GDP growth forecast for 2023, citing widespread power outages, failures to operate and maintain freight trains and ports, and high costs of living. has been revised downward.
On spending, BER said there were concerns about the impact on net trade and inventories from port and rail disruptions. These trade developments could also affect the fourth quarter current account statistics to be released by the South African Reserve Bank on Thursday.
South Africa's current account balance unexpectedly contracted to R19.3 billion in the third quarter of 2023 from a revised R185.2 billion in the second quarter.
