Mines and Energy Minister Tom Alweend warned at the summit that overly optimistic predictions of creating up to a quarter of a million jobs by 2030 may not be realistic, but the key was to establish new types of industries that he called a second industrial revolution. Photo: John Grobler
This month the Namibian government hosted the World Africa Hydrogen Summit, but the reality outside the conference hall is that the country has not produced a single kilogram of green hydrogen or ammonia, despite ambitions to produce at least 300,000 tonnes of green ammonia for export markets by 2030.
Three years after the government issued an international call for green hydrogen (GH2) proposals in June 2021, three of the nine projects approved so far are set to start production by the end of 2024. Cleansey, High Iron and Dowless Green Village have each confirmed they are in the final stages of their first phase pilot projects.
Experts blame the lack of local GH2 production on a global shortage of electrolysis units, but most of the proposed GH2 projects are behind schedule due to a range of factors, from a lack of infrastructure and water to difficulties in attracting private investment.
hindrance
One of the obstacles is the lack of a legal framework: a draft Green Hydrogen Bill, being prepared by the Electricity Management Board since last year, has yet to be submitted to Parliament.
Furthermore, the Namibia Investment Promotion and Development Board (NIPDB), which was established in January 2021 within the Presidency as the executive body for the Green Economy Plan, is yet to be formally gazetted by the Ministry of Finance.
This means that the statutory status of Green Hydrogen Commissioner James Mnuyepe, appointed by the late President Hage Geingob in August 2020, is technically still invalid.
The legal quagmire appears to be linked to a political power struggle within government officials over who has ultimate authority under Namibia's controversial new Investment Promotion Act, which dictates which sectors foreign investors are allowed to invest in and who they should select as local Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) partners.
As things stand, the Ministry of Industrialization, Trade and Small Business Development still has legal jurisdiction over what was once its investment center before Geingob moved it to the President's Office, confirmed Catherine Shipsch, manager of strategic marketing and branding at NIPDB.
Munyepe did not respond to questions on these issues emailed to his address at the Presidential Office on Friday, September 6.
The NIPDB also could not provide a complete list of GH2 projects, saying the companies are not obliged to register with the NIPDB and that so far only Hyphen Hydrogen has done so.
Political momentum
Since Geingob's death in early February, efforts to market what was meant to be his economic legacy have lost political momentum in the face of growing public skepticism about the feasibility, practicality and environmental impact of a green economy on the fragile ecosystem of the Namib Desert.
The NIPDB has quietly rolled back the ambitions of the GH2 program to attract $190 billion in foreign investment over the next decade for mining, manufacturing and agriculture projects planned for the North, Central and South Green Hydrogen Corridor stretching from the Atlantic coast.
Hyphen Hydrogen Energy acted as an adviser to NIPDB on the design of the Southern Development Corridor concept and then won the tender to implement its proposal, but the megaproject is currently a year behind schedule. The project first requires the completion of a new port in Lüderitz, whose construction has not yet been officially announced or open to tender.
Since Oxpeckers reported in November 2023 on its concerns about the Hyphen project's impacts on biodiversity and local communities (see Environmental groups' concerns over green hydrogen), Hyphen has been the subject of scathing criticism from the Namibian Environment Chamber, which recently published an opinion paper labelling the project “red hydrogen” due to the environmental damage the 4,000 square kilometre industrial plant is expected to cause to the fragile, succulent-rich Karoo ecosystem of Tsau/Kaev National Park.
In response, and perhaps to reassure German government investors, Hyphen organized a media tour last week for some of Germany's most influential news organizations, but did not extend the same invitation to local Namibian media, most of whom cannot afford the $2,000 admission fee for the World Africa Hydrogen Summit.
New hires
At a press conference in late August ahead of the summit, Mnupe said 170 million Namibian dollars (8.66 million euros) had been invested so far and 400 new jobs had been created from the eight GH2 projects. A total of 65.6 million euros in German, Dutch and European Investment Bank funding has been allocated to Namibia's five GH2 projects since 2021, according to a review of publicly available data.
Of these five foreign-funded projects, only three have started construction, meaning that most of the 400 jobs created so far in the three pilot projects, which are due to start producing hydrogen by the end of 2024, are only temporary additional jobs provided by subcontractors during the construction phase.
The survey found that only 13.2 percent has actually been spent so far, suggesting that foreign donors are taking a wait-and-see approach with parliamentary and presidential elections scheduled for Nov. 29 in mind.
This has major implications for would-be investors in Namibia's GH2 economy, whose abundant wind and solar resources, small but stable economy and rule of law, along with political stability and predictability, are considered Namibia's greatest strategic advantages over its North African competitors.
However, the political fortunes of the ruling Swapo party have been on a downward trend since 2015, with the 2019 election results resulting in a 17% drop in political support, mainly due to a corruption scandal indirectly implicating the late president, and the arrest and detention since November 2019 of two former ministers on charges of corruption and money laundering.
The case is due to be heard in the High Court next month. The outcome could have major implications for both Swapo and Namibia's green economy efforts.
John Grobler is an associate based in Namibia. Ox Peckers Investigative Environmental JournalismThis research was supported by the Heinrich Böll Foundation but does not necessarily represent the views of the foundation.
Check out more research in our Green Hydrogen series here.