South Africa's political crisis appears to be reaching its climax.
Two interrelated issues have thrown the country's political system into turmoil. First, South Africa's public protector is investigating the relationship between President Jacob Zuma and the Gupta family, a wealthy family that allegedly exercised political influence over the president. Mr Zuma blocked publication of the report on the day its author, Thuli Madonsela, resigned, but it is likely to have a huge impact if it is eventually published.
Second, the power struggle between Mr Zuma and Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan (who is himself under investigation for fraud) exploded over the weekend. Mr. Gordhan said in his court affidavit that the Guptas were involved in “suspicious” transactions worth hundreds of millions of dollars. Following the revelations, the country's left-wing opposition party, the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), launched criminal charges against the Guptas.
As South Africa's political system begins to show cracks, with key colleagues of Mr Zuma already beginning to support Mr Gordhan over the president, columnists argue that Africa's most industrialized economy is “on the brink of failure”. “It's very good,” he said. newsweek Describe the roles of key players in the crisis.
Thuli Madonsela: Watchdog
Mr Madonsela ended his seven-year term as public guardian on October 14. She was a sworn enemy of Mr Zuma during her tenure, including exposing the misuse of millions of dollars in state funds to renovate the Nkandla presidential residence. The final act of her role was to be the release of a preliminary report into alleged misconduct between Zuma and the Guptas.
But Mr Madonsela's final breakthrough was thwarted when Mr Zuma applied for a court order to block publication of the report, saying he had not been given sufficient time to answer Mr Madonsela's questions. The report has now been passed on to Mr Madonsela's successor, Busisiwe Mkhwebane, and is unlikely to be published before November, when a decision on Mr Zuma's application will be heard.
Pravin Gordhan: The embattled finance minister
Mr Zuma appointed Mr Gordhan as finance minister in December 2015 following a debacle that caused the South African rand to plummet and undermined confidence in the country's leadership. The president unexpectedly sacked former finance minister Nhlanhla Nene and replaced him with little-known backbencher David van Rooyen. The latter's term lasted less than a week, when he was succeeded by Gordan, who held the position from 2009 to 2014.
Since then, there has been an apparent power struggle between the president and the finance minister, and Mr. Gordhan is under criminal investigation. The country's elite police force, known as the Hawks, has been investigating Gordhan for allegedly overseeing the creation of a rogue espionage unit while he worked at the Internal Revenue Service from 1999 to 2009.
Opposition parties have interpreted the allegations, which Mr Gordhan dismissed as “totally baseless”, as evidence that Mr Zuma is trying to take control of the Treasury. Mmusi Maimane, leader of the opposition Democratic Alliance, said: newsweek In August, he claimed President Zuma was “playing Russian roulette” with South Africa's economy, which is on the brink of recession.
On October 11, the National Prosecuting Authority charged Gordhan with fraud in connection with employment matters that arose while he was working at the tax office. Over the weekend, Gordan appeared to be fighting back. In a court affidavit released by the Treasury on Sunday, the finance minister said more than 70 payments linked to the Gupta family and companies controlled by them have been reported to authorities as “suspicious” since 2012. , listed a total of R6.8 billion ($476 million).
The Gupta family: the accused family
The three Gupta brothers (Ajay, Atul and Rajesh) immigrated to South Africa in 1993 and have since built a large business empire. The family's interests include media, mining and IT, and the Gupta-owned companies employ three of Zuma's close relatives.
Madonsela's investigation into the relationship between Zuma and the Guptas began in March when the country's deputy finance minister, Maksevisi Jonas, told Madonsela that just before Nene was sacked in December 2015, his family asked Madonsela to investigate the relationship between Zuma and the Guptas. This came after he claimed to have been offered the position. The Guptas denied the allegations, but their opponents disagreed. Stakeholders and concerned citizens called for an investigation into allegations of “state capture” by the family, the idea that the family was wielding undue political influence through their relationship with Zuma.
The problems with the Guptas were further exacerbated by Gordhan's affidavit. The finance minister's revelations came as part of an application to the High Court to rule that the finance minister cannot intervene in the decision of a major South African bank to cut ties with a company owned by Mr. Gupta. Several of South Africa's biggest banks ended their relationships with Oakbay Investments, the Gupta family's investment vehicle, in 2016, and Oakbay had written to Mr Gordhan asking for help. Oakbay said it was investigating five of the 72 “suspicious” transactions listed by Gordhan, but the affidavit brings further scrutiny to the family.
Jacob Zuma: President under fire
Mr Zuma has had his fair share of scandals since coming to power in 2009, including the Nkandla scandal and the recent revival of around 800 corruption charges against him. However, his political battle with Gordhan seems to have isolated him from other party members.
Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa, Mr Zuma's right-hand man, on Sunday expressed support for Mr Gordhan, saying his efforts to stabilize South Africa's economy “regardless of any legal challenges” facing the finance minister. It should not be compromised.” Mr Zuma is already facing growing partisan discontent after the African National Congress (ANC) achieved its worst election results since 1994 in August. Mr Ramaphosa's decision to support Mr Gordhan may be a sign that the party's senior ranks are also starting to distance themselves from him.
The president's relationship with the Guptas and the plot to prevent his release also appear to be undermining Zuma's credibility within the party. The ANC publicly stated on Friday that it supported the publication of Mr Madonsela's report, saying the allegations of state capture were “very serious” to the party.
Julius Malema: radical opposition leader
Malema was previously an ally of Zuma when he was a member of the ANC Youth League. But since founding the left-wing EFF in 2013, he has been an outspoken critic of Zuma, including over the president's relationship with the Guptas.
In February, Mr Malema led a chorus of EFF MPs to disrupt Mr Zuma's State of the Union address, shouting “Zupta must fall”, referring to Mr Zuma's relationship with the businessman. The party has also released a house track titled “#ZuptaMustFall” which has over 9,000 views on YouTube.
South African police on October 13 issued summonses to Malema in connection with two incidents, one dating back to 2014, in which the EFF leader allegedly incited party members to illegally occupy vacant land. . The charges are instituted under apartheid-era laws and Mr Malema has characterized them as a politically motivated attempt to silence him.
But he wasn't silent. The EFF announced on Sunday that it had filed criminal charges against the Gupta family and several of its companies, charging them with theft, money laundering and racketeering.
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