In an article examining the political situation in South Africa, Martin van Staden highlights the country's economic malaise and the government's introduction of racial quotas in employment and the nationalization of private healthcare. The African National Congress (ANC) is expected to lose its parliamentary majority in the next election, threatening its status as the dominant party. This change opens the door to political reform and the possibility of coalition politics. Opposition parties are being urged to seize this opportunity by offering ANC supporters a better deal. Van Staden emphasizes the need for pragmatism and a strategic approach to navigate changing political dynamics, which will ultimately lead to a more contentious and contentious political environment in South Africa .
“199” is the magic number for the 2024 election.If you hit that, everything changes.
Written by Martin van Staden*
South Africa is in an economic downturn. In response, the African National Congress (ANC) government adopted, and is still in the process of implementing, racial quotas in employment and the nationalization of private health care. There appears to be a deep desire at the highest echelons of politics to worsen rather than solve our problems.
It is no surprise that South Africans are politically tired.
However, this feeling of fatigue causes a feeling of discouragement. It is possible that the ANC will remain in power as the leader of a coalition government beyond 2024. However, South Africans should be prepared that this will occur under entirely new political conditions.
read more: South Africans urge uprising in anger over state failure – William Gumede
199: Magic number
The lower house of parliament has 400 seats. This is where most of South Africa's laws are adopted and where, in theory, accountability for government actions is guaranteed. After the 2019 elections, the ANC succeeded in securing 230 of these seats, giving it a comfortable majority and confirming that South Africa remains a “strong party state”.
During the transition period of the 1990s, South Africa adopted a system of proportional representation to ensure that everyone's vote was counted and that minority interests were adequately represented in parliament. In fact, proportional representation tends to foster political division. Because political mavericks and opportunists realize that they can achieve great political gains with just 40,000 votes.
The ANC's dominance was exceptional under these circumstances, but the situation is changing.
It is very likely that next year South Africa will finally, for the first time in decades, cease to be a major party state. Even if the ANC remains the single largest party and may even retain power. This is because if the ANC reaches fewer than 199 seats in parliament, it will formally lose its parliamentary majority and become formally dependent on at least one other party.
This opens doors of opportunity and changes everything. And it is up to committed opponents to seize these opportunities.
read more: The SA engine below deck is in serious trouble – Patrick McLaughlin
rat and mouse
Many political watchers agree that the ANC could form a “rats and mice” coalition that does not include the Democratic Alliance (DA) or the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) to stay in power. However, even if that were the case, it would still mean defeat for the ANC. The door to political reform will be opened.
There is no rat-trap party in South Africa that dogmatically supports the ANC. Those who follow the ANC tend to be political opportunists seeking patronage, status and prestige. All they would need to abandon their support for the ANC would be for the opposition to offer them better terms.
Yes, this requires the opposition to be cunning and clever and perhaps adopt a touch of Machiavellianism. However, from 2024 this phenomenon will enter the realm of possibility, no matter how unlikely it is that South Africa's opposition will ever be this realistic. That field will be opened up because the Luthuli House will no longer have an irresistible whip with more than 200 seats in Parliament.
read more: RW Johnson: ANC's complex decisions threaten economy and SA's reputation
when it gets bad enough
For the first time, the ANC may find it difficult to unilaterally impose its policies on South Africa because a parliamentary majority is not guaranteed.
Therefore, depending on how fervently the opposition opposes a particular bill, it can persuade the rats and mice of the ANC coalition to reject the bill (the mechanism of persuasion is a practical consideration). After all, it's in the rat's nature to abandon a sinking ship and go where it has the best chance of survival.
This is not the ideal system of court governance that we all desire. But the outlook is much better than the current situation, where the ANC goes through a formal process of acting as if it cares about the beliefs of other parties before launching unilateral policies (after all, the Constitution guarantees a multiparty system). Adopting laws and regulations.
As South Africa moves into an era of coalition politics, our aspirations for a civil, orderly and ethical legislature may be just a figment of the imagination. While we must remain principled about the values that underpin public policy and law, we must seriously consider becoming more pragmatic about how best to defend and advance these values. need to do it.
There may come a time when the ANC introduces legislation that could harm constitutional democracy and the country's economic prospects, forcing the opposition to wade into the quagmire to separate rats and mice from the corrupt coalition.
read more: Don’t give up on the coalition project – political analyst Nicholas Wood-Smith
There is no nirvana
This does not mean that 2024 will represent another “miracle” moment for which South Africa is well known, and that Nirvana, freedom and prosperity will soon arrive.
Rather, 2024, whatever the outcome, will be the moment when South Africa ceases to be a dominant party state and, for the first time in 30 years, the ANC's political mandate is finally debatable and politically contestable.
Also read:
*Martin van Staden is Director of Policy at the Free Market Foundation and former Deputy Director of Policy Research at the Institute of Race Relations (IRR). Martin also serves as editor of IRR's History Project and Racial Law Project, and is an advisor to the Free Speech Coalition SA. He is pursuing a Juris Doctor degree at the University of Pretoria.
This article was originally published by Daily Friend and is republished with permission
Visited 2,472 times, 20 visits today
