(Oppa Nkosi)
We are living in turbulent times. Amid rising costs of living and an impending global recession, a climate crisis unfolding faster than previously expected, and multiple geopolitical tensions threatening to spark conflict across the region, governments, including ours, are , will need to become more adaptable and flexible in dealing with these issues. and other emerging systemic threats arising from the unpredictable ways in which they may converge.
However, the imperative of flexibility and adaptability does not negate the need for coherence and continuity in the pursuit of long-term national goals. As circumstances change beyond the government's control, course corrections in the form of strategic updates are inevitable to ensure better alignment with the nation's long-term goals.
When these amendments are made in the absence of a long-term vision, or worse, when such a vision exists but is consciously overlooked, governance outcomes are, at best, characterized by eternal mediocrity. you will have. At worst, it actively undermines national resilience and progress.
Although it has been mentioned less and less in recent years, South Africa happens to have a long-term vision for governance outcomes. The National Development Plan (NDP) 2030, formally adopted by the government in 2012, articulates this vision for a more just and equitable society and identifies clear development and social goals to be achieved by 2030. I am.
Focused on structural weaknesses such as poverty, inequality and unemployment, its goals are clear and so are the strategies envisioned to achieve them in the coming years. But the hope was that the NDP would not just be a plan with specific goals, but would rally the country behind a common vision that could foster greater social cohesion over time.
But South Africa in 2022 is like a rudderless ship, drifting aimlessly on a stormy sea. With poverty on the rise, unemployment above 30%, violent crime soaring, and infrastructure crumbling, government officials are already making significant progress on most, if not all, of the key 2030 NDP goals. admits that it cannot be achieved.
As time runs out, clear signs of potential conflict are also emerging. Polarization among South Africans, and between South Africans and immigrants from other parts of the African continent, has reached increasingly combustible levels, with political opportunists keenly exploiting these fault lines. I am. Given this, many are concerned about the fear of directed violence associated with the perceived inequitable distribution of resources in a context of increasing scarcity.
With the July 2021 looting unrest in KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng still fresh in memory, weakened state institutions are preempting substantial and systematic challenges to the rule of law. Naturally, the question arises as to whether it is possible to do so, or whether it can be countered. when it happened.
In a recent report by the Institute for Justice and Reconciliation, “Vertical and horizontal tensions stretching South Africa's social fabric,'' my colleague Jainisha Patel and I argue that a combination of poor governance outcomes has They argue that it is putting a serious strain on the structure.
After positive developments during the first decade of democracy, the report provides evidence of subsequent stagnation and deterioration in governance outcomes related to poverty, inequality and employment, as well as public opinion. The survey results also point to a simultaneous erosion of social cohesion. South African Reconciliation Barometer and Afrobarometer Survey.
Confidence among South Africans is declining, and so is their confidence in the state to carry out its constitutional duties. While the report recognizes the constraints imposed by the country's apartheid legacy and external factors over which it has little control, it notes that these are largely self-inflicted and that long-term policy persistence and implementation They claim that this is due to the inconsistent ruling party. – Self-developed long-term development plan.
This has mediocre results and in some cases, such as the mismanagement of a country's energy supply, amounts to nothing short of sabotaging development. These are constraints that the country simply cannot accept at this critical juncture, when people are insecure and resources are scarce.
What needs to be done to improve governance outcomes? The report finds that the blurring lines between the state and the ruling party is a significant impediment to improving outcomes. are doing. In this regard, this study examines the extent to which state patronage is used to reward sectarian loyalties within the party, resulting in a hollowing out of institutional capacity and a disconnect between policy and implementation. is highlighted. They argue that this has resulted in a political culture characterized by impunity, underpinned by insufficient legislative oversight and weakened executive checks and balances.
In this regard, the Judicial Commission into Allegations of State Capture, Corruption and Misconduct in the Public Sector and State Institutions, or Zondo Commission for short, has provided ample evidence of the extent to which this has dealt an almost fatal blow to the state. Ta. The latter's ability to develop.
Given this diagnosis, two of the core recommendations restate some of the key long-term NDP proposals aimed at fostering continuity and innovation within the province. These relate in particular to the creation of a competent and independent public service, insulated from parochial party politics.
The state must have the ability to implement government policies in a professional and competent manner, unaffected by the whims of a change of government or intrigues within the ruling party.
Such isolation applies equally to institutions that exercise oversight and provide checks and balances on state power, in order to counter the general impression that sanctions are meted out only to those who have fallen out of favor with the dominant faction. should be expanded to. Transparency and accountability demand compliance from everyone and should be applied without fear or favor.
In addition to achieving governance coherence and continuity, public services must also prioritize improving their foresight capabilities so that they can increasingly adapt to signs of change in the operating environment.
In this regard, we will more strongly institutionalize strategic foresight practices across government to promote a systematic approach that considers policy adjustments within the context of alignment with a broader long-term vision. Suggest that you do.
With limited resources, these proposals are relatively low-cost but have great potential to bring about catalytic change. Above all, they need a change in direction that restores agency to South Africans.
The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect official policy or position. email and guardian.