South Africa faces important decisions regarding the regulation of coalition governments as it seeks certainty and stability in government. Martin van Staden argues that certainty is essential for long-term planning and investment, but it must be balanced with appropriate policies. The government's proposal to address dysfunction through regulation could have unintended consequences, potentially eliminating constructive smaller parties and concentrating power in the major parties. Van Staden argues that instead of rushing through legislation, the focus should be on maturing the political culture to ensure better policies and sustainable predictability for the future.
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Union: Our desire for “certainty” and “stability” is not absolute, but needs to be measured.
Written by Martin van Staden*
Policy certainty and government stability are of vital importance, not only as a practical matter, but also as fundamental pillars of the rule of law. But our deep, almost instinctive desire for certainty must always be evaluated in context. Problems arise when we pursue certainty at all costs.
A few weeks ago, the Office of the President released a “Concept Discussion Paper on Developing a Framework for a Coalition Government''. To make a long story short, after witnessing “dysfunction” at the local government level after the 2016 and 2021 local elections, the government decided to form a coalition government in the name of certainty and the concomitant notion of stability. want to regulate.
The document notes that “the instability being experienced in local government areas is impacting on nation-building projects.” Without a consistent response, the state will become dysfunctional and unable to carry out its mission. The aim is to forestall similar destabilization at the state level and the national government by 2024.
The presidential office asked experts and stakeholders to examine various aspects of the coalition government in preparation for a “national dialogue” on the issue. These include:
“Regulatory reforms that consider the current electoral system, federation regulations, criteria for participation in councils, and other legislation.”
“The culture required for coalitions, the role of voters, the possibility of restricting votes of no confidence, secret voting by members, etc.”
“Address future election stability and explore policy interventions.”
The National Dialogue will be held in Cape Town next week on August 4th and 5th.
read more: The composition of a coalition “agreement” government is on the agenda at the historic national convention.
The importance of certainty
Over the past few decades, we've seen business leaders talk about “policy certainty” rather than “good policy.” Although some entrepreneurs have been specific about what kind of political reforms they would like to see, the business community is generally willing to leave policy choices to the political class unless policies are constantly changing.
This is understandable. Especially for businesses, not knowing what's going to happen next is unsettling. Companies may also not want to appear to be entering the political realm by “undemocratically'' dictating what policies governments should or should not adopt. Highly sexual.
It is true that certainty is an important aspect of the rule of law. Legal actors need to be able to plan in advance, especially far ahead.
In principle, it shows basic respect by not burdening legal entities with new measures that would force them to upend their affairs and arrangements. This serves to reinforce the perception that legal subjects, not politicians' agendas, are at the center of the political world.
Certainty as an aspect of the rule of law also has a practical dimension. For example, some investments may only pay off after decades. When someone decides to make such an investment, they need to be confident that the government will not render the investment worthless by the time they begin to profit from it. This is why companies in mining and agriculture, for example, place particular importance on certainty. Banks also want certainty in the real estate market to ensure that the mortgages they approve today will be repaid over years or even decades.
I elaborate on the importance of certainty because I believe we overemphasize it.
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good policy and specific policy
A certain bad policy is clearly better than an uncertain bad policy. But a good policy with uncertainty, one in which we are uncertain about the details of the policy but are guaranteed to get better, is better than certain bad policies.
But nothing beats specific good policies.
South Africa is in the midst of a very uncertain and bad policy. I don't know “what's going to happen next,” but I'm pretty sure it will be bad policy.
In business, and in the context of federation, ordinary South Africans, by not advocating for good, material As for future policies, we are choosing to settle for certain bad policies.
“Stabilizing the Union” is a noble cry, but the costs could be high. And I would venture to say that that would be a great thing, because the government responsible for stabilization is never a neutral actor.
The regulatory reforms introduced by the bill include eliminating constructive minor parties such as the African Christian Democrats in favor of large, almost completely destructive parties such as the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF). there is a possibility. This could happen if a 'threshold' was introduced, whereby parties would have to achieve a minimum percentage of votes before winning seats in parliament.
This is bad policy because it misses the point, but it would still achieve greater “certainty”.
In fact, the problem with coalition governments is not “small parties” or even “small parties.” Because these are legitimate features of a democracy that emphasizes proportional representation. The problem with coalition government is South Africa's political culture, and it is not something that can be easily solved with laws and regulations. Particular political parties, large and small, seek to seek patronage, status, and prestige by destroying governments.
Focusing on smaller parties, such as the Patriotic Alliance and African Parties, is difficult because the larger parties, the African National Congress (ANC) and the EFF, are motivated by patronage, status, and prestige, as are other smaller parties. is optional. Movement for Change – as something that somehow becomes a spoiler for the coalition simply because it is small.
This reality can only be realized if one wants a policy better than a particular one.
read more: DA celebrates two by-election wins – reports PA’s dirty tricks of vote-buying
Regulation of federations in democracies
I sympathize with the idea of setting certain limits on a no-confidence motion in order to stabilize the government, but it opens a door that is uneasy.
It makes sense to say (for example) that political parties should not table more than one no-confidence motion per quarter, but if we abandon that principle, the ANC will have no-confidence motions in the future. It will be difficult for us to refute any attempt to introduce it. Prohibition of multiple no-confidence motions (from the entire opposition) during the entire term of parliament. At the end of the day, it's all about certainty.
At an emotional moment when we yearn for stability, we must think about the long-term implications of the reforms we advocate today.
As someone who strongly believes in introducing institutional constraints on democracy, I am equally firmly opposed to this being done legislatively.
There should be (and there is, but probably not enough) constitutional restrictions on democratic practices and institutions; To ensure that democracy itself does not threaten liberal values such as individual liberty, private property, and limited government. If you allow restrictions from everyday life, lawBut we are ultimately begging whoever is in control of the Legislature to further their partisan self-interest.
This is not necessarily limited to the ruling party. The official opposition party in the legislature (by definition the second party) is also likely to support such restrictions because it would limit competition from smaller opposition parties.
There is no good way to regulate federations in a democratic regime. Our desire for certainty and stability, while understandable, can lead us down paths of which we are not fully aware of the unintended and unforeseen consequences.
Instead, let's make the hard effort to mature our political culture. Doing so not only produces better policies but also ensures more sustainable predictability in the long run.
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*Martin van Staden is Director of Policy at the Free Market Foundation and former Deputy Director of Policy Research at the Institute of Race Relations (IRR).
This article was originally published by Daily Friend and is republished with permission
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