Parts of southern Africa suffered the driest February in decades, wiping out crops, deepening power shortages and threatening to push already high food prices even higher.
Last month, large parts of Zambia, Botswana and Zimbabwe saw their lowest or near-low rainfall since records began in 1981, according to early data from the Climate Hazards Center at the University of California, Santa Barbara. The center is basing its preliminary assessment primarily on satellite-based rainfall estimates, with a final assessment including more rain gauge observations expected next week.
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Dry seasons blamed on El Niño are an anomaly that scientists say are becoming more frequent and severe due to climate change, even though global warming has far less of an impact. It is the latest indicator of how badly Africa is being affected by the weather. More gas than developed areas.
Zambian President Hakainde Hichilema last week declared the drought a national disaster. An estimated 45% of the acreage was destroyed when the main crop, maize, was supposed to reach maturity. In Zimbabwe, some farmers have given up growing and harvesting crops and are letting cattle graze what's left. The Zambezi River, which powers the turbines that both countries rely on for electricity, has less than a quarter of the amount of water it had a year ago.
Hakainde Hichilema Photographer: Krisztian Bocsi/Bloomberg
“This drought is having devastating consequences,” Hichilema said in a national address. “The destruction caused by the prolonged drought is immeasurable.”
Maize prices in Zambia rose by an average of 76% in February compared to a year earlier. Neighboring Zimbabwe saw a similar rise in US dollar prices for cereals in December alone, according to the Famine Early Warning Systems Network. In some areas, prices have doubled within three months.
The Zimbabwean government has warned that the 2024 harvest could be half of last year's. The local flour millers' association plans to import up to 1.1 million tonnes of corn from neighboring South Africa and South America over the next year, the state-run Herald newspaper reported on February 28. The World Food Program estimates that about a quarter of rural corn is imported. The population will experience grain shortages in the first quarter.
“Food supply constraints posed by dry conditions will put upward pressure on inflation in the region in 2024,” said Yvonne Mango, Africa economist at Bloomberg Economics. “This will likely mean higher interest rates for a long time.”
Much of Botswana has also been scorched by El Nino, with the Botswana Meteorological Department noting that rainfall is significantly lower than normal in large parts of the country. Farmers receiving government aid have planted less than half the area this season compared to the previous season.
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In Namibia, water levels in dams are already dangerously low. The main reservoir supplying water to the capital, Windhoek, is only 11% full and water levels are falling, state water utility spokesman Andries Kok said.
A merchant selling corn snacks in Harare, Zimbabwe.Image: Cynthia R. Matonjoseh/Bloomberg
Non-agricultural production is also expected to decline due to the drought. Zambia relies on hydropower for about 85% of its electricity generation, and the water level in Kariba, the world's largest man-made freshwater lake, which Zambezi people supply with water, has fallen to 15% of its storage capacity, requiring power rationing. It means to become. Zimbabwe has already stepped up its rolling blackouts.
According to the government agency that regulates the reservoir, inflows to Kariba this season are very poor and could eventually reach record low levels.
According to the World Meteorological Organization, El Niño is primarily a seasonal phenomenon that increases the likelihood of extreme weather and weather events. The event is one of the five strongest ever recorded and is contributing to drier and warmer areas of southern Africa, the ministry said in a March 5 statement. mentioned in. Temperatures were 4 to 5 degrees Celsius (39 to 41 degrees Fahrenheit) higher than the February average, he said.
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