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South Africa is enjoying a rare series of power outages in the run-up to elections, drawing more skepticism than praise in a country accustomed to daily blackouts for years.
The country has now gone four weeks without a power outage. This is the longest period of stable electricity supply in South Africa for more than two years.
The recovery coincides with political parties ramping up campaigning ahead of a May 29 vote in which the ruling African National Congress risks losing its parliamentary majority for the first time in 30 years. A survey conducted by Brandmap and Silverstone last year found almost two-thirds of people would consider not voting for the ANC because of the power outage.
A prolonged restart of power outages is likely to lead to a decline in voter turnout, a scenario that could favor the main opposition party, the Democratic Alliance, which has a track record of encouraging its supporters to vote.
The DA says improvements in electricity supply have helped the state quadruple the billions of rand it has spent on diesel to run emergency power plants over the past four years. The government claims this is the result of efforts by state power utility Eskom to repair the facility.
“Some people think this is an election strategy, but I want to assure you that it is not,” Vice President Paul Mashatil said in a speech to businessmen on April 30. “This reality is just evidence of improved business operations.”
Power outages have disrupted life in South Africa for more than a decade, increasing costs for businesses and curbing economic growth. President Cyril Ramaphosa promised to stabilize the country's electricity grid when he won the last election in 2019. Instead, the system steadily deteriorated as the process of building new factories was delayed and soldiers had to be sent in to stop corruption and sabotage in existing facilities.
The ANC's failures in dealing with the energy crisis range from disrupting government tenders to procure privately generated electricity to delays in blueprints for planning future energy needs.
Still, there are positive developments, such as license exemptions for all generation projects. And in the run-up to the election, the ANC has highlighted campaigns such as a R40-million program to replace faulty transformers in Gauteng, the country's commercial hub where the party's rule is under threat.
Some of the demand is being absorbed by a surge in rooftop solar installations and an increase in private developers providing supply to commercial and industrial consumers. Eskom has also refurbished some of its largest plants.
Designed for peak demand periods and powered by diesel, open-cycle gas turbines are kept running at all times to avoid more severe power outages, known locally as load shedding.
That was an expensive option. Public Enterprises Minister Pravin Gordhan said in a parliamentary response, citing information from Eskom, that utilities have spent R65 billion on diesel since 2020.
More than a third of that total occurred in the 2024 fiscal year, which ended in March. Consumption has reached the point where ships are used to store additional fuel, as onshore tanks are too small.
Eskom predicts that repairs to power plants will result in rolling blackouts in the second half of the coming winter season, when power demand increases and the grid becomes more vulnerable.
The utility reported a 9% decrease in unit failures since April 2023 and a 50% decrease in spending on diesel this month compared to last year. Eskom chief executive Dan Malokane said on April 26 that the utility had seen “structural changes” that showed improved reliability at its power plants.
Still, as the vote approaches, political opponents are using the power crisis as leverage. The third-largest opposition party, the Inkatha Freedom Party, called efforts to stabilize power supplies an “election ploy”, a pointed reference to South Africa's proudest sporting victory in recent years. The TV was still on.
“We must remember that less than 24 hours after the Springboks won the 2023 Rugby World Cup, load-shedding returned to the country,” it said. “IFP would not be surprised if load shedding resumes immediately after the election.”