We are facing the following problems: The natural gas supply cliff is just over two years away, dealing another blow to energy availability in our economy. Many industries, from glass manufacturing to beverages, rely on gas as an energy source. The current main source of supply, two Sasol-operated gas fields in Mozambique, will no longer be supplied to South African customers from mid-2026, as Sasol will fully utilize the remaining gas for itself.
As with electricity, there have been warnings for some time that this would happen. However, due to policy inaction and an inability to commit to the large-scale investments needed to build alternative infrastructure, we now face near-inevitable supply disruptions. This would put at risk 70,000 jobs employed by businesses that rely on gas as a key resource that generates R500 billion a year into the economy.
Solutions are possible, but they require governments and businesses to work together and take swift action. Developing new sources of gas and the infrastructure to get it where it is needed will require huge investments, and even if it is currently the best option, there will be a gap between the end of Sasol supply and the start of new supply. It is assumed that there will be a gap of 12 to 18 months. stream.
There are several potential sources of supply, including large-scale developments in Namibia and Mozambique, and the Bururupadda and Ruiperdo prospects off the Cape coast, but it is necessary for these sources to reach Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal. investment in infrastructure has not yet begun. Where most users are.
Negotiations on the development of Brupadda and Luiperdo have been stalled for some time over whether PetroSA will be the main consumer. PetroSA's Mosgas refinery has been idle for four years since the last source of gas supply was depleted. In order for TotalEnergies to undertake the large investments required to bring these resources online, it will need to secure a contract with a large buyer. Even if it materializes, it would take until 2030 for the project to begin delivering gas.
great effort
What is needed is a massive coordination effort. Potential users of gas in both the public and private sectors, from industry to power generation, will need to enter into agreements with potential suppliers and logistics providers to allow investment. But most important is the role of the government, particularly the South African Petroleum Agency and the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy, in creating an enabling environment for obtaining the necessary licenses. It's not easy. Complex technical considerations are required regarding the most feasible gas sources and transportation methods. But by aligning the right expertise, political will and focus on solutions, we can move forward.
Read: Report paints a bleak picture of Eskom power stations
We must act now. Businesses, including potential gas suppliers and consumers, are ready and willing to partner with governments to work on solutions. Long-term stable supply is still several years away, and interim measures will be needed to fill the gap when existing supply is exhausted. I can't afford to waste another day.
- Author Busi Mavuso is CEO of Business Leadership South Africa.