After nearly two weeks of escalating gang violence and instability, millions of Haitians woke up to the news that Ariel Henry had promised to resign as prime minister.
The announcement came late Monday after the United States urged him to step down and begin a transitional political process to stem the unrest.
Haitian civil society leaders have hailed the resignation of Henry, an unelected leader who was appointed to the post in 2021 shortly before the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse, as a long-awaited step.
But many are now wondering what will happen next. The country has long been plagued by corrupt leaders, failing state institutions and violence from rival armed groups, and has not held federal elections.
“First of all, I have to say that I think this is a good thing,” Rosie-Auguste Dussena, a lawyer and program director for the Haitian National Network for the Defense of Human Rights (RNDDH), said of the prime minister's resignation. Ta.
But Dussena told Al Jazeera in a telephone interview from Port-au-Prince on Tuesday morning that his announcement did little to quell the anxiety and fear on the ground.
She said conditions in the western province surrounding the capital remained “very tense” after days of gang violence. “The streets remain empty.”
Since late February, Haitian armed groups have launched attacks on police, prisons, and other state institutions. Port-au-Prince's main airport is closed and residents are afraid to leave their homes to get water, food and other supplies.
“Today, we still have the impression that the Western Province is holding its breath because we really don't know what will happen,” Ducena added.
interim council
The answer to that question — what happens next? — remains unclear.
Leaders of Haiti's armed groups have said the country faces a “civil war” if Henry does not resign, but have not yet commented on his announcement.
However, it is unlikely that Henry's promise to step down after an interim presidential council and a successor are chosen will be enough for groups to lay down their arms.
Jimmy Cherisier, a former police officer known as Barbecue who heads Haiti's powerful G9 gang coalition, said before Henry's statement that he would reject any proposed solution led by the international community.
The resignations came after the group of Caribbean nations known as CARICOM held an emergency meeting on Monday to set the terms of Prime Minister Henry's resignation. The conditions will come into effect after “the establishment of the Interim Presidential Council and the appointment of an interim Prime Minister.” .
Jake Johnston, a Haiti expert and senior fellow at the Center for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) in Washington, D.C., said CARICOM's announcement is “unlikely to lead by itself to a solution to the current crisis.”
In a post on CEPR's website on Tuesday, Mr Johnston said: “After Prime Minister Henry criticized the country for being dependent on support from the US and other foreign powers, any deal promoted by those same foreign powers has legitimacy from the moment it is signed. are likely to face concerns.”
“Negotiations have been going on for the better part of a week, but no participants or discussions have been made public, leaving the vast majority of Haitians in the dark.”
The transition council will be made up of seven voters drawn from across Haitian society, including the private sector and various political factions, CARICOM said in a statement. Two non-voting members will also be elected from civil society and religious groups.
State Department spokesman Matthew Miller told reporters Tuesday afternoon that Washington expects council members to be appointed within 24 to 48 hours.
“Then we will then take steps to appoint an interim prime minister in the near future,” Miller said.
However, CARICOM's statement links participation in the process to support for a proposed international security mission to Haiti led by Kenya and supported by the United Nations.
CARICOM has indicated that anyone who opposes the Kenyan-led mission will be removed from the transitional council, raising further questions about who is deciding the country's political transition.
Some Haitian civil society leaders have previously expressed concern about the prospects of a multinational force in Haiti, stressing the need to put in place safeguards to avoid crises caused by past foreign interventions. did.
Meanwhile, Kenyan officials told media outlets including Reuters and the New York Times that the deployment of police from their country was on hold following Henry's resignation.
“It was the U.S. and foreign support for Henry that made the situation dire,” Johnston said.
“Rather than enforcing a truly Haiti-led process, however, these foreign powers have opted for a stability agreement that is likely to lock in an unsustainable status quo, at least in the short term.”
“I shouldn’t have come to this place.”
Most analysts and experts agreed that it is important to understand how Haiti got to this point in order to chart a path forward.
Marlene Doubt, a professor of French and African American studies at Yale University, emphasized that Henry, who was not elected, should not have had the support of Washington, the United Nations, or other Western powers in the first place.
Prime Minister Henry was hand-picked for the post shortly before President Moïse was assassinated in July 2021. From the beginning of his term, Prime Minister Henry faced calls to resign in favor of the representative council that would lead Haiti to elections, but he refused. He has served as Haiti's de facto president amid a political impasse.
“It shouldn't have come this far,” Daud told Al Jazeera on Tuesday. “Because either the U.S. or the CORE Group [and] The United Nations believes in democracy, but they say so, or they don't.
“And if they believed in democracy, in people participating in their governance through elected officials, they would never support an unelected person to become president. Let’s go.”
Doubt stressed that Haitians living in Haiti need to be “involved at every step” of the political process. “And the United States, the CORE Group, the United Nations, and the Transition Council…need to take leadership from the Haitian people, who have the trust of the Haitian people,” she added.
“Whatever happens next must be based on the will of the Haitian people.”
Avoid the pitfalls of past governments
Much of the violence occurs in Haiti's capital, Port-au-Prince, where the United Nations estimates 80 percent of the city is controlled by gangs.
Laurent Oumremi, the humanitarian organization Mercy Corps' Haiti representative, spoke to Al Jazeera from Port-au-Prince on Tuesday. “The most pressing need is to restore security,” he said.
Oumremi explained that people could go hungry as the city is at a “standstill” amid the unrest.
“There are more than 200,000 internally displaced people in Port-au-Prince,” he said. “They need support, food and water. But if they don't have access and people can't move normally, the situation will quickly deteriorate.”
Dussena, a Port-au-Prince human rights activist, said it was important that Haiti's next government take a rights-based approach and avoid the patterns of poor governance adopted by its predecessor.
She explained that for years Haiti's political leaders have maintained relationships with armed groups to maintain their grip on power. “We hope that the next government will not adopt the same poor governance strategy,” she told Al Jazeera.
Dussena said Haiti also needs to introduce programs to support survivors of the violence that has engulfed the country since Moïse's assassination in 2021. This includes not only compensation but also allowing victims to return to homes occupied by armed groups.
He also urged foreign countries participating in discussions about Haiti's political transition to “demonstrate clarity and, above all, morality” in deciding which individuals are allowed to participate in the process. I asked for it.
“Here in Haiti, we cannot allow just one person to be in power again.”