Residents fill drums with water from a water tanker during a heatwave in Chanakyapuri, New Delhi, India, on June 2, 2024. (Photo by Vipin Kumar/Hindustan Times via Getty Images)
The United Nations weather agency said Monday that the cooling La Niña weather phenomenon has returned this year, which should bring some cooling in temperatures after several months of record-breaking global heat.
The United Nations' World Meteorological Organization said in its latest report that the El Niño global warming phenomenon, which has caused rising temperatures and extreme weather around the world since mid-2023, is “showing signs of ending” and impacts are likely to be felt in the coming months.
But the WMO warned that in the long term, human-induced climate change will continue to make the planet warmer, leading to more extreme weather events and dramatically altering seasonal rainfall and temperature patterns.
La Niña refers to a wide range of cooler sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean, coupled with changes in wind, rain and air pressure.
In many places, especially in the tropics, La Niña produces the opposite climate effects to El Niño, warming oceans and causing droughts in parts of the world and heavy rains in others.
The WMO said there was a “60% chance” of a La Niña event developing between July and September, and a “70% chance” between August and November.
He added that the chances of an El Niño phenomenon recurring were extremely low.
Since June 2023, when the El Niño phenomenon re-occurred, new records for maximum temperatures have been recorded every month, making 2023 the warmest year on record globally.
The WMO said the planet will continue to warm overall due to the use of fossil fuels, which emit greenhouse gases.
Man-made global warming
“The end of El Niño does not mean a pause in long-term climate change. The Earth will continue to warm due to heat-trapping greenhouse gases,” stressed Ko Barrett, Deputy Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
“Abnormally warm sea surface temperatures will continue to play a key role in the coming months.”
Much of the Earth's excess heat due to climate change is stored in the oceans.
In the United States, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has already factored La Niña into its forecasts for this year's Atlantic hurricane season.
NOAA said it expects between four and seven major hurricanes to form in the Atlantic Ocean between June and November.
“The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be more active than normal due to a combination of factors, including record ocean temperatures in the Atlantic, a continuing La Niña phenomenon in the Pacific, weakened Atlantic trade winds, and reduced wind shear,” NOAA said in a May 23 announcement.
The WMO noted that despite the cooling effects of the La Niña weather phenomenon, which lasted from 2020 through to early 2023, the past nine years have been the warmest on record.
The most recent El Niño event, which peaked in December, was one of the five strongest on record.
“Weather conditions will continue to become more extreme with the extra heat and moisture in the atmosphere,” Barrett said.
The WMO has made it a priority to have early warning systems in all parts of the world by 2027, especially in the least-resourced areas such as Africa.
“Seasonal forecasts of El Niño and La Niña, and their expected impacts on global weather patterns, are important tools for early warning and prompting early action,” Barrett said.
©Agence France-Presse
