The busiest day on the US election calendar is approaching.
Super Tuesday will be held on March 5, when millions of voters are expected to cast their votes in presidential primaries and caucuses in more than a dozen states. Also on the ballot are races for both chambers of the U.S. Congress, the House and Senate, as well as other races.
President Joe Biden faces little opposition on the Democratic side and is almost certain to be approved as the party's nominee.
But Super Tuesday could spell the end for former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley in the race for the Republican presidential nomination.
She is the last major candidate still challenging the front-runner, former President Donald Trump, but her campaign has done little to dent Trump's ironclad grip on the party. .
Here's everything you need to know about Super Tuesday, its history, and this year's biggest battleground.
What is Super Tuesday?
Super Tuesday is the day when most states hold presidential primaries and caucuses.
These state-level elections help candidates from the two major political groups, Democrats and Republicans, gather the delegates they need to win their party's support. Delegates ultimately represent their states at party conventions, where they vote for candidates based on the results of primaries and caucuses.
This year's Super Tuesday races will have 874 Republican delegates at stake, or about 36 percent of all participants. A candidate must win at least 1,215 delegates out of a total of 2,429 to win the Republican nomination.
For the Democratic Party, 1,439 of the party's total 3,979 delegates will be up for grabs on Tuesday.
When is Super Tuesday?
This year it will be Tuesday, March 5th.
Which US states will vote on Super Tuesday?
Fifteen US states are voting on Super Tuesday.
- Alabama
- alaska
- arkansas
- California
- colorado
- maine
- Massachusetts
- minnesota
- north carolina
- oklahoma
- tennessee
- texas
- Utah
- vermont state
- Virginia
Voting will also be held in the territory of American Samoa.
The results of the Iowa Democratic caucus, which is being held by mail-in voting, are also expected to be known on March 5th.
What is the origin of the term “Super Tuesday”?
The origins of the term are a bit fuzzy, but according to Pew Research Center editor Drew DeSilver, its origins date back to at least 1976. However, at the time, “Super Tuesday” meant the last major primaries in June: California, New York, and Ohio.
But most experts agree, as DeSilver writes, “Super Tuesday, as we know it today, was born in 1988.”
After Republican President Ronald Reagan's victory over Democratic White House candidate Walter Mondale four years ago, a group of Democratic politicians from southern US states decided to “advance” their presidential primaries. It was at that time.
Their idea is that by holding same-day voting early in the election cycle, they can better influence party choice and ensure that the eventual candidates will succeed in the American South. was.
Although the 1988 effort was unsuccessful, Super Tuesday remains a voting day in most U.S. states.
Why is Super Tuesday important?
Super Tuesday is important because about one-third of the delegates are allocated by each party to decide their presidential candidate.
A strong performance can deal an effective blow to a presidential campaign, helping White House candidates secure more funding and gain momentum. But a poor result could bring the campaign to a screeching halt.
Caitlin Jewitt, associate professor of political science at Virginia Tech, said, “With so many states holding contests at the same time, candidates must provide enough funding to perform well across the board on Super Tuesday.'' “They need to be well-organized and have a high profile.” He told Al Jazeera.
“When there is a clear front-runner going into Super Tuesday, that candidate often becomes the clear front-runner after Super Tuesday, and many other candidates drop out of the race.”
Jewitt pointed to the 2020 Democratic campaign as an example of how campaigns can be energized. After lagging behind that year, Biden performed well on Super Tuesday, winning 10 states. The race then turned into a two-man race between him and Sen. Bernie Sanders.
Successful Republican candidates are similarly enjoying a Super Tuesday boost. Jewitt noted that while Texas Sen. Ted Cruz did not perform as well as expected on Super Tuesday in 2016, Trump did better than expected. He went on to win the presidential election that year.
“So you can see President Trump starting to pick up steam from there,” Jewitt said.
What can we expect from this year's presidential primaries?
For Haley, a former ambassador to the United Nations, a poor performance could mean the end of her race for the 2024 Republican nomination. Polls show her trailing Trump in every Republican race on Super Tuesday.
“It's not going to be that great,” Jewitt said of the lopsided race.
“It's not that important this year. This may be important because it could be a last stand for Haley, but other than that Joe Biden and Donald Trump winning their respective nominations. It seems inevitable, so we don't expect too many surprises on Super Tuesday.”
Haley, who has lost to Trump by wide margins in all the early state contests so far, said she plans to remain in the race at least through Super Tuesday. Her plans after that are unknown.
After losing the Feb. 24 primary in her home state of South Carolina, she said, “Even though the majority of Americans don't support both Donald Trump and Joe Biden, I still support this fight.'' I have no intention of giving up.”
Will there be more voting content other than presidential primaries?
yes. On Super Tuesday, Americans will also vote in so-called “down vote” races.
Those include contests to fill seats in the state legislature as well as the Senate and House of Representatives.
There will also be races for lower-level positions such as prosecutors, judges, city council members, and education commissioners.
What are some of the Super Tuesday races to watch?
One of the most anticipated contests will be held in California. Local voters will choose two candidates to face off in November to fill the vacant Senate seat held for decades by Dianne Feinstein, who died in September.
Recent polls show Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff leading with 28% support in the primary, which is open to candidates from any party. Republican former baseball player Steve Garvey had 22%, while Democrats Katie Porter and Barbara Lee had 16% and 9%, respectively.
A number of Democratic candidates are vying for the chance to challenge Republican Ted Cruz for Senate seats in Texas. According to a University of Houston poll released in early February, Rep. Colin Allred had a 40% approval rating among Democratic primary voters, compared to the front-runner, Texas Sen. Roland Allred. Gutierrez's approval rating was 12%.
“But whether Ted Cruz faces Allred or Gutierrez in the general election, Cruz remains a very strong favorite,” said Rice University political scientist and co-author of the report. Mark Jones said in a statement.
Other notable races include:
- In Minnesota, Muslim community leaders are protesting Biden's support for Israel during the Gaza war and are calling on voters to choose “non-commitment” in the Democratic primary. A similar campaign in Michigan received more than 101,000 votes on February 27th.
- In North Carolina, the Democratic and Republican parties are holding primaries to choose their respective gubernatorial candidates. Far-right Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson is in the lead and has President Trump's support, while state Attorney General Josh Stein is the top Democrat.
- In Alabama, a number of candidates are vying to represent new congressional districts. Local media reported that the 2nd Congressional District, created after the U.S. Supreme Court approved new electoral maps, has gone from being a Republican stronghold to an area of opportunity for Democrats.
When will we know the Super Tuesday results?
Results will begin to trickle in as each state and territory finishes voting. Usually that's after around 7pm local time.