On February 12, Saleh Abu Ghanem heard Israeli warplanes buzzing in the sky from dawn until dawn.
They were bombing the southern Gaza town of Rafah, near the Egyptian border, where 1.4 million Palestinians sought relative safety from Israel's relentless attacks. Abu Ghanem escaped the attack, but learned that his aunt had been killed in her home by an Israeli bomb.
“She was asleep when she was martyred,” he told Al Jazeera.
Last week, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterated his intention to expand military operations into Rafah. Two days later, Israel launched a series of attacks that left dozens dead.
Analysts believe Netanyahu's stated plans are part of a broader conspiracy to reduce Gaza's population and prolong his political survival, and many believe that Netanyahu's post after the war is over. I expect him to be fired.
But world leaders have warned that a full-scale assault on Rafah is a “red line” that should not be crossed, despite little threat of punishment if Israel goes ahead with the attack.
Palestinians forced to flee to Rafah have nowhere else to go. Nearly 1,200 people were killed in a deadly Hamas attack on October 7, and there are concerns that the military operation could lead to the worst violence in a war that has already killed more than 28,000 Palestinians. Many people are concerned.
“Some people have run away from Rafah.” [since the recent attacks], but I don't know where it went. He has nowhere to go. Where can anyone go? '' said Abu Ghanem resignedly.
Gaza's population decline
The impending military operation in Rafah is intended to permanently expel hundreds of thousands of Palestinians across the border into Egypt, according to Omar Rahman, an Israel and Palestine expert at the Middle East Council for Global Affairs think tank. It is said that there is.
He told Al Jazeera that Israel's war in Gaza has always been a broader operation against Palestinians, not just Hamas. He said Israel's plan to attack Rafah was further evidence.
“The Israeli war machine is approaching Rafah with genocidal intent,” he said.
Haneen Rizk, a Gaza official with the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), which provides education, medical and other relief services to Palestinian refugees in the occupied territories and surrounding provinces, said most people were simply waiting to die.
She added that some families have returned from Rafah to their homes and communities in central and northern Gaza. But with at least 70 percent of Gaza's homes destroyed or damaged, most people in Rafah have no choice but to remain in place, Rizk said.
“If Egypt opens its borders… most people will leave,” she told Al Jazeera.
“But at the moment it is very expensive for anyone to enter Egypt. It costs about $5,000, but very few people have that kind of money.”
Egypt has closed its border with Gaza since October 7. But Risk was referring to private bus companies that charge high fares to transport Palestinians to Egypt, which few people in Gaza can afford.
“Game of Chicken”
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi has vowed since the early days of the war that he would not take in Palestinian refugees, out of concern that it would “end the Palestinian cause” and threaten Egypt's national security. Egyptian leaders called for a ceasefire to avoid a humanitarian catastrophe that could further complicate diplomatic relations with Israel.
“I call it the game of chicken,” Rahman said.
“Israelis expect Egyptians to make concessions by opening borders.” [if pressured] And the Egyptians hope to buy enough time to get to Washington. [ends] It’s a war,” he told Al Jazeera.
Egypt may already be on the move. Local rights groups report Egypt is said to be building a “buffer zone” in the Sinai region to absorb Palestinians expected to flee Rafah. However, Egypt has not confirmed this report.
CIA Director William Burns also recently visited the Egyptian capital, Cairo, to discuss the possibility of a temporary ceasefire that would allow for a prisoner exchange between Hamas and Israel.
Hamas attacked Israeli communities and military outposts on October 7, capturing about 240 Israelis, while Israel held about 10,000 Palestinian prisoners on “security-related” charges. However, many have not been prosecuted. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has insisted on rescuing Israelis in Gaza by military means, despite opposition from prisoners' families who have begged for a deal.
Rahman said Netanyahu's real motive was to keep occupation forces in Gaza for a significant period of time to prevent Palestinians from rebuilding their homes and allow civilians to live in constant fear. I believe there is. “Israel's intention… is to keep up the pressure.” [Palestinians] “To escape,” he said.
A political ploy?
Netanyahu's political survival is also tied to maintaining the war in Gaza, said Mairav Zonszein, an expert on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict at the International Crisis Group, a think tank specializing in conflict prevention and resolution.
Prime Minister Netanyahu's approval ratings are low, and many Israelis are calling for post-war national elections to be held. According to recent opinion polls, Prime Minister Netanyahu is likely to be ousted from power if a referendum is held.
As a result, Zonszein believes Netanyahu may delay a full-scale military operation against Rafah in order to prolong the war.
“All this talk about Rafah, and using it for a hostage trade, is just a way for Prime Minister Netanyahu to wait for more time,” she said.
Palestinians in Rafah are hoping Netanyahu is bluffing, but many believe an onslaught is imminent. Abu Ghanem, who lost his aunt, said he hoped only his three young children – two girls and a boy – would survive.
“Children are dying every day… and we are living like animals,” he told Al Jazeera. “Please tell the world we just want a ceasefire.”
