On the record: Commentators say President Cyril Ramaphosa has lost his electoral appeal and the momentum of Ramaphoria, which was still present in the last election, has waned.Photo: Fani Mahunzi/Getty Images
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PDespite the risks, resident Cyril Ramaphosa delivered his eighth State of the Union address (Sona) on Thursday – big or small depending on which poll you read – and it would be his last. He will make or deliver promises in the coming months to measurably improve his electoral prospects, knowing that there is little that can be done.
It is natural for presidents to use this opportunity every February to reflect on their government's achievements, but Mr Ramaphosa will likely continue this until polling day, with a special opportunity to remind voters of all the milestones achieved since 1994 along the way. will appeal to you.
Analysts said his speech this week will always be read as a last ditch effort from within Congress to influence the outcome of the election, but time is not on the president's side. This would put any ruling party in a difficult position, but it was even worse for the ANC, which was unable to find answers to its most dire problems at the time.
“This is the first time in the history of this country that we have a Sona where there is at least a chance that the person who gave it to him will not become president after the next election,” said political analyst Stephen Friedman.
“My reading is that he will probably become president at the end of the year, but what he wants to do then is important and not irrelevant.
“But I don't think it will affect the election. People are not going to sit there and say, 'He said some good things in Sona, so I'm going to vote for him.' ”
Academic, author and analyst Richard Calland agreed that Mr Ramaphosa's efforts this week were essentially meaningless as campaign material.
He believes the president will try to tout the ANC's achievements over the past 30 years, knowing that it has faced harsh criticism for its recent performance.
He is presiding over a persistent energy crisis, but there are no positive economic fundamentals. At best, the national budget to be announced by Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana in two weeks will predict continued stagnation.
And, like Ramaphosa's pledge to end load shedding, his pledge to end state capture and prosecute the culprits is coming to naught.
More money for the National Prosecuting Authority won't immediately provide the skills to handle fraud and money laundering cases, nor will there be a windfall in bringing the Guptas back any time soon. It probably won't be there forever. The Ministry of Justice is currently led in circles by fellow BRICS member the United Arab Emirates, which has refused to provide a convincing reason for refusing extradition last year. Without it, the Ministry of Justice would of course lead to the United Arab Emirates, which is also a BRICS member. I believe there is. Fresh application.
“Election years inevitably lead to government leaders expressing their own stalling in terms of successes and positive trends.
“It's not easy because many of the indicators we look at when measuring government performance, such as employment, growth and fiscal position, are negative for South Africa and not all of them are positive,” Mr Callande said.
“They may try to evoke the spirit of 1994 through memorial parades, and if government funds are being spent on government-led 30th anniversary events, they may try to piggyback on that to generate energy and momentum. About his own campaign.
“In some ways, it's easy to sell a long-term story: 'Let's look back at the 30 years this country has been around and look at what we've accomplished since then. We've had our challenges, we've had our problems. However,”
These reforms, which Mr. Ramaphosa has managed to implement over the past six years, are difficult to sell politically, especially to an electorate locked in endless battles of flesh and blood.
“The gains he made were in the hills, and they were systemic,” Calland said.
“I get to speak to talented and dedicated people in government who probably wouldn't have been in that post if it weren't for Mr. Ramaphosa. That's a positive thing.
“The President's Climate Commission is one example. This movement is towards a difficult but just energy transition, and the potential for a green economy is all there.
“His continued support is [Minister of Trade and Industry] Ebrahim Patel and reforms and attempts to promote a strong industrial growth strategy across the economy are important.
“The government doesn't get the attention it deserves. It's misrepresented as interfering in the economy, when in fact it's often saying it should be doing more.”
It is always difficult for politicians on the campaign trail to prove counterfactuals, such as that things would have been worse if they had not been in power.
To be fair, there is some truth in Mr Ramaphosa's case, starting with the fact that he has made far better appointments than Mr Zuma. The latter failed in all three attempts to appoint a national prosecutor without the decision being pending legal review.
It was Mr Ramaphosa's promise to end this level of corruption and incompetence that motivated the ANC in the last election.
“2019 was the Ramaphosa election, but the 2018 Ramapholia wave is still there, and across class, race and state, people are probably having their noses pinched, but he still has some hope and hope. There is evidence that he voted for the ANC because he recognized what it had given him.''He had what it takes to be a leader,'' Mr Calland said.
That he has become a prisoner of an intractable internal struggle between integrity and corruption in the party, which began two months ago at an ANC election conference in which those the Zondo commission recommended for prosecution were installed in executive positions. Five years have passed since this was revealed. He cannot hope to restore the confidence of the majority of voters in the renewal movement.
Since then, his credibility has been seriously damaged not only by the disappointment of his comrades and ministers, but also by the Farah Farah scandal, which continues to cast doubt on his personal integrity.
Mr Freedman said Mr Ramaphosa's personality was less appealing as an elector, as was evident in the last local government elections.
“There is still a perception within the ANC that he is more popular than the party, but I don't think that is as much of a factor as it was in the 2019 national election when he first took office.
“This is a very unique situation in the sense that he took over after the Zuma government, and if people supported the ANC, even if they were not happy with what Zuma did, he would change his policies. “I mean there were expectations that it would be all around, and obviously a lot of those expectations have not been met,” Friedman said.
“There is a breakdown of trust between the ANC and a large part of the constituency and that is why we are in the current situation. clearly no longer believes in promises.”
Like Freedman, Callande doubts that Ramaphosa will remain in power after the election. The question is how long this will last, but that depends on the ruling party's leeway.
If he clears 50%, the crisis will be over and he will get the credit. He predicted that if the score was slightly below, he could stay, but if it was 46%, he would be sent off.
“Once your approval rating drops below 47% or even 48%, firstly you have handed the ANC its first defeat at the national level and secondly you will become yet another lame duck president.
“Given what we know about his work ethic, he has everything he wants to say, but people will again try to twist his arm to maintain a middle ground,” he said. Told.
Distortion is appearing. Last week, President Ramaphosa made a suggestion to the ANC's national executive committee Lekgotla that foreign powers were keen on “regime change”.
Senior government officials gave summary statements in off-the-record interviews, pointing out that both the United States and Israel could be named as suspects.
Conspiracy theories prompted the president's critics to make similar claims. Their intention is for South Africa to agree to a cease-fire order to prevent atrocities in the Gaza Strip and consider whether Israel is violating international law, in a desperate attempt to divert attention from the ANC's domestic failures. They have started a petition to the International Court of Justice.
Friedman said this idea is dangerous. Because no right-thinking person would rush to court with this kind of motivation, and no one in their right mind would believe it would work.
Moreover, those with actual knowledge of the government believe that this approach was not Ramaphosa's idea, but was promoted by the Department of International Relations, particularly Secretary Zane Dangor, and progressive lawyers who believed they had a strong case. I know what happened.
To suggest otherwise, Calland said: “The ANC's 50 years of support for the Palestinian cause essentially needs to be set aside, it is in its DNA. This is a long-standing and deeply held position.”
