In a widely anticipated move, South Africa's ruling African National Congress (ANC) suspended former president Jacob Zuma on Monday, months before a presidential election.
In a statement on X, the ANC condemned Mr Zuma's insubordination and said his suspension was justified on the basis of “exceptional circumstances”.
The move follows months of turmoil between Mr Zuma and current president Cyril Ramaphosa, which tarnished the image of the party that has ruled South Africa since the end of white minority rule three decades ago.
Mr. Zuma still enjoys broad popular support, posing a threat to his party, which has struggled to gain the same level of public support it once had.
Here's what we know about Zuma's suspension and why he fell out with the ANC.
Why did the party suspend Mr Zuma?
In a statement after a meeting of the ANC National Executive Committee (NEC), ANC general secretary Fikile Mbalula said the party was in a state of disrepair mainly because Mr Zuma supported other parties without formally leaving the ANC. He said Zuma had been suspended.
In December, Mr Zuma criticized the ANC leadership and said he would vote for the newly formed party, Umkhonto Wesizwe (MK), or Spear of the Nation. It was named after the defunct military wing of the ANC, which resisted apartheid rule but was disbanded after South Africa's independence. . Mr Zuma later said he would maintain his membership in the ANC.
This worries the ANC, whose support in this election has declined due to high unemployment and poverty rates in one of the world's most economically unequal countries. It looked like.
The ANC said in a statement that Zuma “actively denounces the integrity of the ANC and campaigns to remove it from power, even though he claims he has not terminated his membership.” “Mr Zuma and others who act contrary to our values and principles will find themselves outside the ANC.”
The ANC leadership also plans to shut down the MK party by filing a complaint with the Electoral Court and trademarking its name.
How did Zuma's problems begin?
Mr Zuma is a controversial figure in South African politics. His suspension is just the latest in a series of clashes between him and President Ramaphosa, who is also the ANC leader. Here is the timeline:
February 14, 2018: Zuma was arrested in 2009 following allegations of widespread corruption within his government in which a wealthy family admitted to influencing government contracts and bribery in multibillion-dollar deals with French arms manufacturer Thales. He has since been forced to resign by the ANC following the ruling, which has kept him in office. Mr. Ramaphosa took office and promised to clean up, effectively starting the feud.
June 29, 2021: Mr Zuma was sentenced to 15 months in prison after refusing to appear in court in an ongoing corruption investigation. Mr Zuma maintains the trial is politically motivated.
July 8, 2021: Violent riots erupt in South Africa as Zuma begins his sentence. His supporters have attacked dozens of buildings, including stores and public infrastructure. The riots left more than 300 people dead and ultimately led to Zuma being released on medical parole in September.
December 15, 2022: President Zuma accused Ramaphosa of releasing classified documents about him to the media. The move is widely seen as part of Mr Zuma's campaign to remove Billy Downer, the prosecutor who handled the former president's corruption charges related to arms deals.
December 16, 2023: Mr Zuma has criticized the ANC and expressed support for the MK in Soweto, leading to speculation that he helped found the party. His announcement came on the anniversary of MK, the armed group founded by former president Nelson Mandela in 1961.
January 29, 2024: ANC suspends Zuma.
How will the suspension affect ANC support?
A split in the ANC could have a negative impact on the party's standing ahead of the 2024 elections.
Mr Zuma enjoys popular support in his home province of KwaZulu-Natal. He also enjoys considerable support in Gauteng. These two provinces are the areas primarily affected by the 2021 violence and are areas where the ANC may struggle to win this year's elections.
At the MK party's launch in Soweto in December last year, Mr Zuma announced his intention to give the ANC an uphill battle in the region.
“The new people's fight begins today,” he said. “The only crucial difference is that this time we will use ballots instead of bullets.”
In addition to the Zuma drama, the ANC, which has won every election since 1994, is also losing support among many South Africans. Faced with dire electricity supplies, rising levels of violence and poverty and corruption within the government, it was already difficult for the party to win a landslide victory this year.
The Democratic Alliance, the main opposition group, will join forces with six smaller parties in late 2023 to vote for a political party if they fail to win a 50% majority in an election in which South Africans first vote for a party and then the party is elected. It aims to oust the ANC. president. This coalition poses a serious threat to the ANC's supremacy.
“As a new party, MK has no track record and does not have access to the resources or organizational capacity of the ANC. And without access to the state, it cannot trade for patronage politics.” Chatham House, UK Chris Vendome told Al Jazeera.
“But in these regions [KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng] “It is already foreseeable that the ANC may lose its political advantage,” he said.
“Furthermore, Zuma supporters have shown they have the potential to become agitators and incite violence, and there is a risk of low-intensity electoral violence in KwaZulu-Natal, particularly in this year's vote.”
What's next for Zuma?
The former president has not responded to the suspension, and it is unclear whether he will file a lawsuit to challenge the decision.
Whether Mr Zuma files an objection or not, he could be expelled entirely. Ramaphosa told reporters that the expulsion was the first step in addressing Zuma's actions, while other party leaders said they were considering permanent banishment, but as a last resort.
Despite being vocal about his support for MK, Mr Zuma has not officially joined the party and insists he still belongs to the ANC. However, local media reports suggest that the former president likely instigated the formation of a new party to rival the ANC.
Mr Zuma's home provinces of KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng are considered electoral kingpins of sorts. These states are the most populous in the country, accounting for 44 percent of the total population.
Regardless of whether he wins the election or not, MK will be a significant distraction for the ANC in KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng. Already, the ANC has to contend with the Democratic Alliance and the Inkatha Freedom Party, which is supported mainly by ethnic Zulu people in KwaZulu-Natal.
Chatham House's Mr Vendome also said that even if Mr Zuma were to return to the ANC, it was unlikely that he would be able to wield the same influence as before.
“his [Zuma’s] His declining influence within the ANC has contributed to his shifting alliances, and his personal interests are best served by being an external disruptor rather than wielding internal influence. “That was the calculation,” he said.
“It also speaks volumes about the ANC that it supported the former president throughout the trial and defended his poor performance as president, but his disloyalty to the movement is what the ANC is punishing.”
