The escalating civil war threatens to collapse the country of about 55 million people, located between China and India. Although this has had international implications, the conflict has not received widespread attention.
Over the past six months, resistance groups in Myanmar's interior have defeated the ruling military junta in battle after battle, surprising analysts. This increases the possibility that the military regime is at risk of collapsing.
War is already a human rights catastrophe. Myanmar's implosion since the 2021 military coup has destroyed the economy and pushed millions into extreme poverty. It has a growing reputation as a hub for drugs, online fraud centers and money laundering. And that destabilization has become a strategic headache for China, India, the United States, and other countries.
This is an introductory book.
The coup paved the way for disaster.
Myanmar is not a democracy. The military junta authorized elections more than a decade ago, allowing Aung San Suu Kyi, the daughter of the assassinated independence hero, to become a member of parliament. She later headed a civilian government. However, the military regime controlled the main instruments of power through a military-drafted constitution.
In 2021, the generals arrested Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi (by then she had lost her glory as a human rights icon) and staged a coup. That sparked demonstrations, a brutal crackdown on mostly peaceful protesters, and a wave of resistance by armed fighters.
Civil wars are not new. Myanmar's military has been on a war footing since the former British colony gained independence in 1948. The recent fighting is unusual because many civilians from the country's majority Bamar ethnic group have taken up arms alongside ethnic groups that have been fighting the military for decades.
The fighting left thousands of civilians dead.
Years before the coup, Myanmar was emerging from decades of isolation under oppressive military rule. Companies such as Ford, Coca-Cola, and Mastercard invested heavily. In the largest city, Yangon, tourists wandered among gilded towers and grand colonial buildings.
Now, the bombing has pushed Yangon to the brink, Western countries have imposed economic sanctions on members of the junta, and thousands of middle-class people have fled to the jungle to fight alongside the ethnic rebellion.
The cost is borne by civilians. The fighting killed thousands of people and displaced nearly 3 million more. The United Nations says the country is now riddled with landmines and extreme inflation has led to a significant shrinkage of the middle class.
The health sector is in crisis, with the regime targeting doctors. Among many problems, childhood immunization has virtually stopped and malaria has increased significantly. Experts are concerned about the spread of HIV and tuberculosis.
Rebels gain territory.
Rebel forces have occupied vast swathes of territory since October, when ethnic coalitions captured several towns near the Chinese border in Shan state. Some attacked the capital Naypyidaw with drones and rapidly advanced into several border areas. In recent weeks, Karen rebels have seized a trading town east of Yangon along the Thai border. This was a goal that was once unthinkable. Neighboring Karenni state could become the first state to be completely freed from military rule.
There is also Kachin state in the northeast, where the military controls lucrative jade mines, and the western border, where Myanmar soldiers and their militia allies once massacred the Rohingya Muslim minority, killing hundreds of thousands of people. Progress was also made in Rakhine state. Escape to neighboring Bangladesh.
Some analysts say the Arakan Army, Rakhine state's powerful ethnic militia, could soon seize the heavily guarded capital, Sittwe.
The conflict has spillovers internationally.
Wars have regional and international effects. Since the 2021 coup, Russia and other countries have sold at least $1 billion worth of arms to Myanmar's military, according to the United Nations. China recognizes the threat to the infrastructure projects it funds across the country. And India, which has long been concerned about chaos in the border area, is forcibly deporting Myanmar refugees.
Myanmar's neighbor to the east, Thailand, is similarly concerned about the more than 40,000 refugees the United Nations estimates will cross its border this year. Bangladesh sees obstacles in its efforts to repatriate the Rohingya. And the United States began providing non-lethal aid to armed resistance groups.
So why doesn't war get more attention? One reason for this may be that Aung San Suu Kyi went from being a Nobel Peace Prize winner under house arrest to an apologist for murderous acts against the Rohingya.
Richard Horsey, a Myanmar expert and adviser to the International Crisis Group, said her fall had undermined the “democracy versus generals narrative” that would have helped draw attention to the war.
““Fairy tale stories are gone,” he said. “And, you know, Sudan, right? Haiti? They don't get that much attention either.”
Sui Lee Wee Contributed to the report.