Europe is concerned. President Donald Trump's comments last week that he would “encourage” Russia to “do whatever it wants” to NATO allies that do not spend enough on their defense struck many European officials and leaders seriously. It made me feel uneasy. After all, he is the clear front-runner for the Republican nomination, topping incumbent Joe Biden in many polls ahead of November's US presidential election.
Trump's frustration with fellow NATO members who don't spend 2% of their GDP on defense is well known, as is his fondness for Russian President Vladimir Putin. The unpleasant reality is that only 11 NATO members spent more than the 2% of GDP requirement on defense last year. Thirteen EU member states, including Germany, France, Italy and Spain, did not participate.
But the riot set an unusual precedent, as the Trump administration ignored NATO's mutual defense clause and effectively threatened to not come to the aid of NATO members attacked by Russia.
Unsurprisingly, European politicians were immediately furious. Even the normally reserved NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said, “Any suggestion that allies not defend each other would undermine all of our national security, including that of the United States, and would put American and European soldiers at further risk.'' It will be,” he protested.
Europe is already feeling less secure as Mr. Trump looks increasingly likely to seek a second term in the White House. And it goes beyond just the defense budget.
If he is re-elected, Europe, and the rest of the world, will need to prepare for a strengthened version of the “America First” policy that allies had to contend with during his first presidency. Europeans are well aware that NATO's Article 5 principle (all allies must come to the aid of an attacked country) is not legally binding. Furthermore, it is a promise to take the following actions. [a country] deems necessary” and seeks to deter adversaries by instilling fear that it will provoke a united response.
The implications of questioning the foundations of such a world order are profound.
First, NATO members immediately feel less secure. Last week, Denmark's defense minister warned that Russia could attack a NATO member state within as little as three years, in the latest and starkest warning from Western officials about Russia's desire for confrontation beyond the Ukraine war. I warned you that there is.
“We cannot rule out the possibility that Russia will test Article 5 and NATO cohesion within three to five years. That was not the assessment of NATO in 2023. This is new information that is now surfacing,” Troels said. Rand Paulsen said Jyllands-Postena Danish newspaper.
Second, if Trump becomes president again, European unity will be under strain like never before. The European Parliament elections are expected to reflect growing support for far-right parties across the region, and Trump's victory will embolden nationalist leaders and parties. Italy's Matteo Salvini and Hungary's Viktor Orban will likely feel emboldened by Trump's re-election, which could lead to policy changes such as supporting Ukraine against Russian aggression.
However, there are counterarguments. Faced with an unstable U.S. administration and a looming existential threat from Russia, Europe may be forced to deepen its integration toward a true geopolitical federation. This includes generations of defense investment and requires further economic and fiscal integration to achieve the “strategic autonomy” advocated by French President Emmanuel Macron.
Europe suffers from a half-baked monetary union that lacks sufficient fiscal and political integration.
Jean Monnet, the founding father of the EU, famously said: “Europe was forged in crises and will be the sum of the solutions adopted in response to those crises.''
Another Trump term could indeed be that crisis that moves Europe toward far greater integration. Purely because without such integration Europe cannot survive.
Finally, a second Trump presidency will not only affect NATO and Europe, but will also have far-reaching implications for global security and economic stability. The security provided by the United States has been the basis of Western stability and world order since World War II, contributing to world peace and prosperity. Trump's return to the White House will jeopardize this homeostasis and make the world even more uncertain.
The world may already be moving inexorably toward a new world system that is far more unstable and far more chaotic. Events over the past two years, primarily in Ukraine and the Middle East, seem to confirm that. But that doesn't make this outcome any less concerning. As the US elections approach, all countries, including South Africa, must prepare to navigate the potential consequences of such a reality. DM
