Other major winter crop producing provinces such as the Free State, Limpopo and Northern Cape are likely to start preparing their soils around the end of May.
Winter crop production outside the Western Cape requires significant irrigation support. These areas should benefit from relatively high dam levels due to early summer rainfall.
Almost half of South Africa's production of major winter cereals such as wheat is produced under irrigation. Irrigation as a proportion of total wheat production is essential in environments where dry weather conditions and heat waves are causing significant damage to summer cereal and oilseed areas.
Indeed, the winter weather forecast for the Western Cape remains uncertain.
El Niño conditions are expected to end by the beginning of winter, with a return to flat terrain. This is according to the latest seasonal climate monitoring from the South African Weather Service.
The assumption is that in El Niño-neutral conditions, the Western Cape region will receive average rainfall, which will support the winter cropping season.
Still, farmers should regularly check weather forecasts and adjust planting decisions based on the latest local data. The current strength of El Niño was not clear even in weather forecasts late last year.
This past winter crop season has had its share of challenges. The September 2023 floods damaged barley and canola quality. Winter wheat yields also decreased.
The 2023/24 winter cropping season started well, with expectations for a decent harvest, but production conditions deteriorated after the September 2023 floods.
As a result, the winter wheat harvest in 2023/24 was 2.08 million tons, down 2% from the previous year. Barley yield was 376,195 tonnes (up 25%) and canola 237,450 tonnes (up 13%).
Still, the bountiful barley harvest was fraught with quality concerns, which put pressure on farmers' incomes. There was also infrastructure damage to roads and agricultural facilities, increasing costs for farmers in the Western Cape.
Outside of the Western Cape, the Free State is typically the third largest producer of winter crops, particularly wheat.
A harsh summer harvest has devastated the state's summer grains and oilseeds, and it's unclear whether farmers will stop planting their usual acres until they feel more confident about the weather. That decision is very important for the entire wheat harvest.
Another possibility is that farmers could grow more winter wheat areas to make up for lost yield and time in summer areas.
On April 25, the Crop Estimation Committee will release data on farmers' planting intentions. This data will give a sense of South Africa's winter crop yield potential and farmers' decisions after a tough summer grain and oilseed season.
Apart from weather conditions, input costs are also an important consideration ahead of the winter crop planting season.
The positive thing is that input prices have come down from last year's levels.
For example, in February 2024, essential herbicides such as glyphosate, acetochlor, and atrazine were down 38% year-over-year, 20% year-over-year, and 5% year-over-year, respectively. Prices of pesticides and fungicides have also fallen significantly compared to last year.
It is also noteworthy that essential fertilizers such as ammonia, urea, diammonium phosphate, and potassium chloride decreased by 37%, 11%, 2%, and 36%, respectively, in February 2024.
If the rand had not depreciated during this period, the gains from the price decline would have been even greater.
These input price changes are important because they affect a huge portion of grain input costs. For example, fertilizers account for one third of a grain farmer's input costs, and other pesticides account for about 13%.
This means that if the prices of these inputs fall, input costs for farmers will be reduced significantly. This partially offsets the decline in crop prices over the past year.
Over the past two years, high wheat prices have helped farmers cope with higher input costs. Fortunately, the input cost environment is now improving.
This means we begin another critical month for winter crops with a highly uncertain weather outlook.
I would like to keep an eye on the statistical data on farmers' intentions that will be released at the end of this month. DM