- Global trade in goods is expected to underperform GDP growth over the next decade, reversing a 20-year trend, according to new analysis from BCG.
- World trade is projected to grow at 2.8% per year until 2032, while global GDP growth is estimated at 3.1% over the same period
- Africa's trade is projected to grow at an annual rate of 3.3% by 2032, above the global average
- Africa's future trade shifts to emerging markets and regional cooperation
- Five new global trade trends will shape the next decade
- US-China trade is expected to decline, with trade value in 2032 expected to be $197 billion below 2022 levels, while EU-China trade growth is expected to slow
As the world economy adapts to sustained economic and geopolitical pressures and disruptions, the familiar routes that defined the world trade map are being redrawn and regional trade lanes are playing a greater role in global trade. Masu.
Changes in the trade landscape indicate that overall world trade is growing at a slower pace than the global economy, a fundamental shift away from the trade-driven trend of globalism the world has enjoyed for most of the years since the end of the Cold War. It's changing. According to a new report from the Boston Consulting Group (BCG), global merchandise trade is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 2.8% until 2032, with global GDP growth estimated at 3.1% over the same period. I am. The future of jobs, national security and trade.
The emergence and increasing prominence of regional trade corridors has implications for traditionally deep and rapidly growing trade lanes, such as China-US and China-EU.
“Global trade is changing, and the maps we once knew are being redrawn,” said Nikolaus Lang, managing director and senior partner, global leader of BCG's Global Advantage practice and co-author of the report. he said. “We expect to see lasting changes in the flow of goods around the world as supply chains are rebalanced and neighboring countries strengthen regional trade relationships.”
African trade growth
Africa's increasing levels of prosperity, improved regional economic integration, and the growing importance of critical minerals in the global economy will cause Africa's trade to grow faster than the global average. It is expected to grow by 3.3% annually to $1.5 trillion by 2032.
“The next decade will be a year of growth for African trade,” said Tim Figures, partner and associate director at Boston Consulting Group. “However, the continent's trade will become increasingly concentrated in the east, with countries such as China, India and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) representing the largest trade increases.”
Comparing 2022 and 2032, changes in merchandise trade with China are expected to increase by 44% ($265 billion), with India by 53% ($118 billion), and with the GCC by 61% ($113 billion).
Excluding intra-African trade, trade between the African continent and the rest of the world is expected to show a trade surplus, with two-way trade increasing by 3.3% annually. Africa's trade with the rest of the world is characterized by a 6.9% annual increase in exports to $106 billion by 2032 and a 2.5% annual increase in imports to $71 billion by 2032.
Five new global trade trends will shape the next decade
This study highlights five new global trade trends that will define the world over the next decade.
- China trade trends. Persistent trade tensions between China and the West and an increase in “managed trade” have slowed trade between the West and China. The projected decline in U.S.-China trade is one of the most significant developments in the latest global trade map, with trade volume projected to fall by $197 billion in 2032 from 2022 levels. China's trade with the EU will continue to grow, but at a slower pace than the global average.
- Stronghold North America. The United States, Canada, and Mexico stand to benefit from the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), as trade with U.S. neighbors is projected to increase by $466 billion over the next decade.
- ASEAN trade growth. Southeast Asian countries are among the biggest winners in the new world trade order, with ASEAN's cumulative trade The amount is projected to increase by $1.2 trillion over the next 10 years. , is driving the growth of ASEAN as a global export platform. The ASEAN region's own strong fundamentals are also driving increased investment and trade activity.
- India fires. Benefiting from a low-cost structure, an increasingly talented workforce and improved logistics, India is emerging as a major domestic market and 'China+1' destination for global manufacturing. India is projected to achieve an average annual trade growth rate of 6.3%, which is more than double the global average.
- Russian trade differences. Much of Russia's trade has shifted to BRIC countries such as Brazil, China, India, and South Africa. Russia's trade with China and India will increase by $134 billion and $26 billion, respectively, by 2032, while trade with the EU will decrease by $222 billion.
“While unit economics is one of the key drivers of these changes, geopolitics is also a clear catalyst,” said Mark Gilbert, managing director and senior partner at BCG and co-author of the report. . “In a year with many important global elections and almost half of the world's population voting, we expect to see a continuation of industrial policy focused on national economic security, job creation and green energy. One result will be the strengthening of regional trade groupings, particularly in North America, the European Union and ASEAN.”
China is currently one of the world's leading exporters of manufactured goods, but its relative cost competitiveness is declining and its domestic economy is also slowing down. As a result, trade that has stopped flowing between China and the West will often shift elsewhere as non-Chinese companies reassess their supply chains. Many companies are relocating manufacturing to these economies to de-risk global supply chains and access new markets, with notable beneficiaries of reduced concentration in China. will be ASEAN countries and India. As a result, trade between ASEAN and China will grow by a staggering $616 billion over the next 10 years, and trade between ASEAN and both the United States and Japan will also increase by more than $200 billion.
“This is not just an event. These changes in trade patterns are reshaping the global economy. Companies must be thoughtful and decisive. If you don't, you risk becoming caught up in rapidly changing factors that are beyond your control,” said Michael McAdoo, partner and director of global trade and investment at BCG and co-author of the report. Stated. “Companies that are ahead of the curve are already investing in making their supply chains more resilient, responding to volatility, and building appropriate risk and cybersecurity capabilities.”
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